Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk research snapshot
TLK AI stock analysis reads Telkom Indonesia as Indonesia’s largest integrated telecom operator, with Telkomsel mobile leadership, IndiHome fixed broadband, enterprise ICT, wholesale and international connectivity, tower and data-center exposure, and a majority state stake held through Danantara Asset Management. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified NYSE ADR close was $14.66 from July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $14.4 billion, TTM P/E was about 14.3x, free cash flow yield was high near 16%, and the trailing dividend yield was about 6.4% after the FY2025 dividend of $0.94 per ADR was cut about 10% from the prior year. The TLK AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a certain price prediction. The core tension is durable connectivity demand, strong free cash flow, a modest valuation, and a new 2026 share buyback, set against declining attributable earnings, revenue pressure, competition and ARPU weakness, a reduced dividend, SOE and Danantara governance, Indonesian currency and legal risk, and a chart still below its 200-day average. This page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$14.66
Market cap
about $14.4 billion verified market cap
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
High-cash-yield Indonesian telecom leader in an earnings reset with a reduced dividend and a new buyback
Trend status
Long-term trend still down; price rebounded off the 52-week low but sits below the 50-day and 200-day averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Telkom earns recurring revenue from Telkomsel mobile services, IndiHome fixed broadband, enterprise ICT, wholesale and international connectivity, towers, and data centers across Indonesia. | High |
| Moat | Nationwide network scale, spectrum, fiber, Telkomsel brand and distribution, IndiHome footprint, wholesale infrastructure, and a state-backed franchise support the moat, while three-player mobile competition and regulation keep limiting pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | President Director Dian Siswarini, formerly CEO of XL Axiata, leads a more market-oriented team that added a 2026 share buyback, non-core divestitures such as the AdMedika sale, and portfolio restructuring under Danantara ownership while attributable earnings still decline. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was IDR 146.74 trillion (about $8.8 billion), down about 2.2%, while attributable net income fell about 25% to IDR 17.81 trillion (about $1.05 billion). Q1 2026 revenue was IDR 37.20 trillion and net income about IDR 4.3 trillion, both lower year over year. | High |
| Valuation | At $14.66, verified reference math is about 14.5x TTM EPS near $1.01 per ADR, 1.9x book value, 6.2x free cash flow per share, and a 6.4% trailing dividend yield. The yield is high in part because the dividend was cut and the price has fallen. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The long-term trend was still down as of the July 31, 2026 close. Price at $14.66 was just below the 50-day average near $14.97 and well below the 200-day average near $18.66, after rebounding from the 52-week low near $13.22. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate-high because mobile and broadband price competition, ARPU decline, dividend policy after the 2026 reduction, SOE and regulatory decisions, IDR volatility, legal cases involving board members, and execution of the buyback and divestitures can reprice the ADR quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | High for the official operating map, verified market-cap math, and mechanical valuation checks. Lower for the earnings trajectory, dividend durability, buyback impact, and multi-year price paths. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The connectivity franchise, free cash flow, and modest multiple are real, but the setup requires proof that earnings stabilize, the reduced dividend stays covered by sustainable cash flow, and the buyback and divestitures deliver value without policy interference. | Medium-low |
TLK AI stock forecast
The TLK AI stock forecast uses a three-year earnings and multiple framework around the $14.66 July 31, 2026 close and about $1.01 TTM ADR EPS. Financial-rigor scenario math produced about $18 in the bullish case, about $13 in the base case, and about $8 in the bearish case. These are conditional planning ranges, not price promises.
$17 to $20
More likely if mobile and IndiHome ARPU stabilize, revenue stops falling, net income recovers after the 2025 reset, free cash flow covers the reduced dividend and the 2026 buyback without balance-sheet stress, divestitures and portfolio simplification create clearer value, and TLK reclaims the $15 to $16.50 zone and then the 200-day average with volume.
$12 to $15
More likely if revenue stays roughly flat, earnings bottom out but do not re-accelerate, the ADR keeps trading near a mid-teens earnings multiple and a 6% to 7% dividend yield, and the stock oscillates between the 52-week-low support area and the $15 to $16.50 resistance zone.
$7 to $10
More likely if competition and ARPU pressure deepen, net income and free cash flow keep contracting, the dividend is cut again or judged unsustainable, the buyback does not proceed, IDR weakens sharply versus the dollar, SOE or Danantara policy changes capital allocation, governance or legal problems escalate, or the ADR loses the $13.20 to $13.50 support band.
TLK AI technical analysis
TLK AI technical analysis was defensive to neutral as of the July 31, 2026 market close used for this page. S&P Global listed a $14.97 50-day average and $18.66 200-day average against a $14.66 last sale, with a 52-week range of $13.22 to $23.52 and an RSI near 52. Confirm live data before relying on any chart level.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.66 | NYSE ADR close from the July 31, 2026 StockAnalysis and Nasdaq snapshot used at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Support | $13.22 to $13.50 | Near the 52-week low and the recent trading floor. A decisive break would weaken the defensive case. |
| First resistance | $14.97 | The 50-day moving average sits just overhead and is the first test for the rebound. |
| Resistance zone | $15.50 to $16.50 | The zone where recent bounces failed before the July slide. A sustained reclaim would improve the intermediate setup. |
| 50-day moving average | $14.97 | S&P Global quote snapshot. Price just below this average kept the intermediate trend under pressure. |
| 200-day moving average | $18.66 | S&P Global quote snapshot. This remains the longer-term overhead trend reference and requires live confirmation. |
| Momentum | Neutral; RSI near 52, long-term trend still down | S&P Global RSI snapshot near 52. Treat RSI as secondary to price versus the 50-day and 200-day averages. |
| Volume | About 772K ADRs average over 20 days; about 981K on the July 31 close | Use a live chart to assess whether any rebound has confirmation from volume. |
| Volatility | Low beta, event-sensitive EM telecom ADR | S&P Global listed a 0.13 five-year beta, but earnings on August 14, 2026, IDR moves, dividend and buyback news, Indonesian policy, and U.S. risk appetite can still move the ADR sharply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $13.22 | A decisive close below the cited 52-week low area would invalidate a simple support-hold framework. |
TLK AI trading strategy
The TLK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price confirmation with operating evidence from mobile and fixed broadband ARPU, revenue, net income, free cash flow, the reduced dividend, capex, the 2026 buyback, divestitures, and Indonesia-specific risk monitoring, with 1H26 results due August 14, 2026.
Wait for TLK to reclaim and hold above the $14.97 50-day average and then the $15.50 to $16.50 resistance zone with rising volume, while quarterly results show revenue stabilizing and net income recovering after the 2025 reset.
Reduce setup confidence after a failed breakout or a close back below $13.50. Do not use a technical bounce to ignore a weaker dividend, buyback, or earnings disclosure.
If TLK revisits the $13.22 to $13.50 support band without deterioration in free cash flow, net debt, or core mobile and broadband metrics, compare the ADR yield, P/E, and P/FCF with updated EPS, IDR conditions, dividend policy, and buyback progress.
Set a maximum loss and time horizon before entry. A lower price is not a signal by itself when competition, dividend policy, or SOE capital allocation has changed.
Track Telkomsel subscribers and ARPU, IndiHome fixed broadband ARPU and churn, enterprise ICT and data-center revenue, EBITDA and operating profit, free cash flow and capex, net debt to EBITDA, dividend coverage versus earnings and FCF, the 2026 buyback, AdMedika and other divestitures, IDR/USD, 1H26 results on August 14, 2026, and Indonesian regulatory, legal, or SOE news.
Treat a high headline yield as a research flag when payout and buyback together exceed earnings and free cash flow. Reassess exposure if free cash flow no longer covers cash returns after growth capex.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Telkom Indonesia for essential connectivity and digital infrastructure. The company earns recurring revenue mainly through Telkomsel mobile services and IndiHome fixed broadband, then adds enterprise ICT, wholesale and international services, towers, data centers, and selected digital products.
The moat rests on national network scale, spectrum, fiber, brand, distribution, fixed broadband footprint, wholesale infrastructure, and a still-consolidating Indonesian mobile market. Its durability is tested by price competition from Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison and XLSmart, regulation, technology investment needs, and execution of the buyback and divestitures.
The thesis fails if ARPU and attributable earnings keep falling, free cash flow cannot support network investment, the reduced dividend, and the buyback together, buyback or divestiture actions destroy value, SOE or Danantara priorities override minority-holder economics, IDR weakness erodes ADR returns, governance or legal cases escalate, or the market re-rates a high-yield name into a value trap.
Dian Siswarini became President Director in May 2025 with a mandate to refocus on core connectivity profitability and streamline the portfolio. The 2026 board added market-oriented executives, launched a 2026 share buyback, and agreed to divest the AdMedika stake, while the Government of Indonesia through Danantara still controls a majority stake of about 52%. The capital-allocation test is whether these actions restore earnings and protect cash returns while keeping minority-holder and policy interests aligned.
Indonesian data consumption, fixed broadband penetration, enterprise digitalization, and AI-related data-center demand support the long-term industry case. Telecom economics remain capital intensive, and higher traffic does not automatically restore pricing power when competition is intense.
At the cutoff reference, TLK priced about 14.5x TTM earnings, 1.9x book value, about 6x free cash flow, and a 6.4% dividend yield. The margin of safety depends on free cash flow durability, dividend and buyback sustainability, competitive rationality, IDR translation, and whether management can stop the earnings decline without over-investing.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLK ADR quote and market capitalization | $14.66 close on July 31, 2026; market cap about $14.4 billion, with $14.66 x 0.986 billion ADR-equivalent shares calculating to $14.45 billion versus $14.36 billion reported by S&P Global | StockAnalysis, Nasdaq info quote, S&P Global Market Intelligence, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding and ADR structure | About 98.58 billion ordinary shares, equivalent to roughly 0.986 billion ADRs using the 100 ordinary shares per ADR conversion, with FY2025 net income per ADS of IDR 17,982.85 | StockAnalysis statistics and Telkom IR financial highlights | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Revenue IDR 146.74 trillion (about $8.8 billion), EBITDA IDR 72.24 trillion, operating profit IDR 34.65 trillion, and attributable net income IDR 17.81 trillion (about $1.05 billion), cross-checked across Telkom IR, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | Telkom IR financial highlights, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 and trailing twelve months | Q1 2026 revenue IDR 37.20 trillion, EBITDA IDR 18.0 trillion, and net income IDR 4.3 trillion; TTM attributable net income about $1.0 billion and TTM free cash flow about $2.34 billion | Telkom IR financial highlights and StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and cash flow | FY2025 equity attributable to owners IDR 130.69 trillion, total assets IDR 287.76 trillion, capex IDR 24.58 trillion, net debt to EBITDA 1.04x; TTM cash $3.16 billion, total debt $4.52 billion, and net debt $1.36 billion | Telkom IR financial highlights and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and buyback | FY2025 dividend $0.94234 per ADR, about 6.4% yield at $14.66, paid July 20, 2026 after the June 18, 2026 ex-dividend date, down about 10% from $1.04621 the prior year; a 2026 share buyback plan was disclosed May 1, 2026 and updated June 4, 2026 | StockAnalysis dividend history and Telkom IR corporate action disclosure | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical data snapshot | 50-day average $14.97, 200-day average $18.66, 52-week range $13.22 to $23.52, RSI near 52, beta 0.13, and last close $14.66 | StockAnalysis statistics (S&P Global) and Nasdaq stock info | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation and scenario math | 14.5x TTM P/E, 1.9x P/B, 6.2x P/FCF, 6.4% dividend yield; three-year scenario values of about $18.1, $13.2, and $7.9 | Pineify financial_rigor.py using the documented quote, EPS, book value, free cash flow, and growth or multiple inputs | August 3, 2026 |
This TLK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, and not a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if business conditions, financial data, technical trends, currency, interest rates, regulation, SOE or Danantara policy, governance and legal matters, or market sentiment change.
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