VALE technical analysis
VALE Technical Analysis
Analysis date
August 6, 2026
Market
NYSE (USD)
Daily cutoff
August 5, 2026
Reliability
Passed
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Data verification
VALE Data Verification
Checking the latest completed daily bar for date and closing-price consistency before indicators are calculated.
- Symbol
- VALE
- Market
- NYSE
- Currency
- USD (US Dollar)
- Latest completed bar
- August 5, 2026
Historical prices are adjusted for corporate actions when applicable. Date and closing-price consistency checks passed for the latest completed daily bar.
| Validation series | Latest Close | Date | Difference | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calculation series | 14.94 | August 5, 2026 | - | Verified |
| Verification series | 14.94 | August 5, 2026 | 0.00% | Verified |
Bottom line
VALE Technical Analysis Summary
VALE technical analysis shows a stock in a strong longer-term uptrend that is recovering from an intermediate pullback. On the daily chart, price at 14.94 sits above SMA20 (14.59) and SMA200 (14.75) but just below SMA50 (15.14), with RSI14 at 52.10 and a fresh bullish MACD crossover. On the weekly chart, price at 15.06 is above SMA50 (13.91) and SMA200 (11.14) but below SMA20 (15.70), and the weekly MACD histogram is still negative, so the correction from the 17.94 high is not fully complete. The 52-week range is 9.03 to 17.94, with price in the upper portion of the range at about 66% on the daily timeframe. Key resistance is at 15.16 (20-day high), forming a cluster with the SMA50 at 15.14, followed by the 60-day high of 17.28. Key support is at 14.59 (SMA20), 13.94 (20-day and 60-day low), and 11.14 (weekly SMA200). A sustained close above 15.16 would open the path toward the 17.28 area, while a break below 13.94 would signal a deeper pullback.
Multi-timeframe dashboard
Multi-Timeframe Technical Dashboard
Comparing daily (2-year) and weekly (5-year) perspectives to identify aligned or conflicting signals.
Daily (August 5, 2026)
- Trend
- Mixed. Price at 14.94 is above SMA20 (14.59) and SMA200 (14.75) but below SMA50 (15.14). The rebound from the 13.94 low has pushed price back above the short-term and longer-term averages, while the SMA50 still sits overhead. Price remaining well above SMA200 keeps the longer-term uptrend built over the past year intact.
- Momentum
- Neutral to bullish. RSI14 at 52.10 has recovered to just above the 50 midline after being in bearish territory during the pullback. The MACD line at -0.05 has crossed above the signal line at -0.13 with a positive histogram at 0.08, confirming a fresh bullish crossover, though both the line and signal remain slightly negative, so the momentum turnaround is early rather than fully established.
- Volatility
- Moderate. ATR14 at 0.38 (2.56% of price) reflects an average daily range of about 2.5%, typical for a commodity-linked stock. Price closed in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands (14.00 to 15.19), near the midpoint of 14.59, leaving room toward the upper band as a near-term reference.
- Volume
- Above average. Latest volume of about 33,249,000 shares is 1.52x the 20-day average (about 21,839,000), showing participation increased on the recent up bar and supporting the bounce from the 13.94 low.
Assessment
The daily chart shows an early recovery within a longer-term uptrend. Price reclaimed SMA20 (14.59) and SMA200 (14.75), RSI is back at the 50 midline, and the MACD has produced a bullish crossover with a positive histogram. The nearest hurdle is the resistance cluster at SMA50 (15.14) and the 20-day high of 15.16. Above-average volume on the recent up bar supports the rebound, but a failure at that cluster would keep the near-term structure range-bound. A close back below SMA20 at 14.59 and the 13.94 support would weaken the setup.
Weekly (July 27, 2026 week)
- Trend
- Mixed. Price at 15.06 is below SMA20 (15.70) but well above SMA50 (13.91) and SMA200 (11.14). Price remaining below the short-term weekly average reflects that the pullback from the 17.94 high is still being worked off, while the wide margin above SMA200 keeps the longer-term uptrend intact.
- Momentum
- Neutral. RSI14 at 50.28 sits essentially at the 50 midline, showing momentum is balanced after the strong advance. The MACD line at 0.12 remains below the signal line at 0.44 with a negative histogram of -0.32, so weekly momentum has not yet produced a bullish crossover and the corrective phase continues, even though both values are positive.
- Volatility
- Elevated. ATR14 at 1.00 (6.65% of price) reflects the larger weekly ranges typical of a mining stock. Bollinger Bands span 13.69 to 17.70, with price in the lower half of the band, consistent with the ongoing pullback.
- Volume
- Below average. Latest weekly volume of about 102,437,000 shares is 88.6% of the 20-week average (about 115,570,000), indicating recent weekly bars have traded with lighter participation.
Assessment
The weekly chart shows a strong longer-term uptrend that is correcting. Price is well above SMA50 (13.91) and SMA200 (11.14), with the 52-week position around 68%, but the short-term average SMA20 (15.70) remains overhead and the weekly MACD histogram is still negative. The correction from the 17.94 high has not fully resolved. A weekly close back above SMA20 at 15.70 would be the clearest sign that the correction is complete and the uptrend is resuming, while holding above the SMA50 at 13.91 keeps the medium-term structure constructive.
Key indicators
VALE Key Technical Indicators
RSI, MACD, moving averages, ATR, and Bollinger Bands across daily and weekly timeframes.
| Indicator | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 52.10 | 50.28 |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | -0.05 / -0.13 / 0.08 | 0.12 / 0.44 / -0.32 |
| ATR (14) | 0.38 (2.56%) | 1.00 (6.65%) |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2) | 14.00 - 15.19 | 13.69 - 17.70 |
| SMA (20) | 14.59 | 15.70 |
| SMA (50) | 15.14 | 13.91 |
| SMA (200) | 14.75 | 11.14 |
Price structure
VALE Price Structure and Returns
Price performance across multiple lookback periods and 52-week position.
| Metric | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | 14.94 | 15.06 |
| 1-Period Return | +0.74% | +1.83% |
| 5-Period Return | +1.98% | -0.07% |
| 20-Period Return | +6.33% | +2.59% |
| 60-Period Return | -10.16% | +72.86% |
| 252-Period Return | +65.21% | +56.20% |
| 52-Week Low | 9.03 | 8.96 |
| 52-Week High | 17.94 | 17.94 |
| 52-Week Position | 66.32% | 67.93% |
Key levels
VALE Support and Resistance Levels
Key price levels based on recent swing highs and lows across daily and weekly timeframes.
| Level | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| 20-Period High | 15.16 | 17.94 |
| 20-Period Low | 13.94 | 13.94 |
| 60-Period High | 17.28 | 17.94 |
| 60-Period Low | 13.94 | 8.23 |
Scenarios
VALE Technical Scenarios
Conditions, invalidation triggers, and what to watch for each scenario.
Bullish Recovery
Trigger
Price breaks and holds above the resistance cluster at SMA50 (15.14) and the 20-day high of 15.16 with expanding volume, opening the path toward the 60-day high of 17.28 and the 52-week high of 17.94. A weekly close above SMA20 at 15.70 would confirm the weekly correction is complete.
Invalidation
Price falls back below SMA20 at 14.59 and then breaks the 13.94 support.
What to watch
Daily RSI pushing above 55 and toward 60; MACD histogram staying positive; a weekly close above 15.70; volume expanding on up days; iron ore price direction and global steel demand.
Range-Bound
Trigger
Price oscillates between the 13.94 support (20-day and 60-day low) and the 15.14 to 15.16 resistance cluster while the weekly correction continues to consolidate.
Invalidation
A decisive break of 13.94 or 15.16 with strong volume.
What to watch
Daily RSI hovering between 45 and 55; MACD histogram flattening near zero; weekly price holding below SMA20; average volume on both sides of the range.
Pullback Resumes
Trigger
Price fails at the 15.14 to 15.16 resistance cluster and breaks below SMA20 (14.59), then the 13.94 support, opening downside toward the weekly SMA50 at 13.91 and, on a deeper move, the weekly SMA200 at 11.14, with the 52-week low near 9.00 as a longer-term reference.
Invalidation
Price reclaims and holds above SMA50 at 15.14 or the 20-day high of 15.16.
What to watch
Daily RSI breaking below 45; MACD histogram turning negative; a weekly close back below SMA50 at 13.91; sustained weakness in iron ore and industrial metals.
Methodology
Methodology and Limitations
This technical analysis is calculated locally from adjusted OHLCV history. The daily series ends August 5, 2026, and the weekly series ends July 27, 2026 week. The latest completed daily bar is independently checked for date and closing-price consistency. Historical prices are adjusted for corporate actions when applicable. Indicators include Wilder RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), SMA20/50/200, Wilder ATR(14), Bollinger Bands(20,2), relative volume, multi-period returns, and price-range levels. Support and resistance are descriptive zones, not guaranteed reversal points. Historical patterns do not predict future prices, and this page is not investment advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
This technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance and historical patterns are not guarantees of future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Market data is checked for date and closing-price consistency before indicators are calculated. Data cutoffs: daily August 5, 2026, weekly July 27, 2026 week. Generated August 6, 2026.
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