MSTR technical analysis

MSTR Technical Analysis

Analysis date

August 7, 2026

Market

NasdaqGS (USD)

Daily cutoff

August 6, 2026

Reliability

Passed

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Data verification

MSTR Data Verification

Checking the latest completed daily bar for date and closing-price consistency before indicators are calculated.

Symbol
MSTR
Market
NasdaqGS
Currency
USD (US Dollar)
Latest completed bar
August 6, 2026

Historical prices are adjusted for corporate actions when applicable. Date and closing-price consistency checks passed for the latest completed daily bar.

Validation seriesLatest CloseDateDifferenceStatus
Calculation series96.85August 6, 2026-Verified
Verification series96.85August 6, 20260.00%Verified

Bottom line

MSTR Technical Analysis Summary

MSTR remains in a pronounced downtrend on the weekly chart, trading below its SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200 with weak momentum and a negative MACD histogram. The daily chart shows a rebound attempt: price has reclaimed the SMA20 and the MACD histogram has turned positive, but the stock still trades below the SMA50 at 107.43 and the SMA200 at 153.92. After falling roughly 77% from its 52-week high of 414.36, MSTR sits near the bottom of its 52-week range at 4.52% of that range. Key support is at 89.21 (20-day low) and 81.81 (60-day and 52-week low). Resistance is at 104.60 (20-day high), 107.43 (SMA50), and 193.00 (60-day high). Elevated volatility driven by Bitcoin price correlation remains a defining feature of the stock.

Multi-timeframe dashboard

Multi-Timeframe Technical Dashboard

Comparing daily (2-year) and weekly (5-year) perspectives to identify aligned or conflicting signals.

Daily (August 6, 2026)

Trend
Neutral to Bearish. Price at 96.85 holds just above the SMA20 (96.13) after the recent rebound, but remains below the SMA50 (107.43) and well below the SMA200 (153.92). The stock has bounced off the lows, yet the longer-term downtrend structure from above 400 to near 82 is still intact.
Momentum
Neutral. RSI14 at 46.82 sits in the middle of its range. The MACD line at -2.85 is still below zero, but the histogram has turned positive at 1.39, signaling that downside momentum is slowing and a base may be forming.
Volatility
Elevated. ATR14 at 6.21 equals 6.41% of price, reflecting the high volatility typical of MSTR, driven by its correlation with Bitcoin. Bollinger Bands (90.83 to 101.44) are wide, and price is trading in the upper half of the bands after the recent rebound.
Volume
Below average. Latest volume of 9,995,021 is 67% of the 20-period average of 14,897,316, showing little accumulation pressure on the latest pullback.

Assessment

The daily chart shows a rebound from the 52-week low zone. Price has reclaimed the SMA20 and the MACD histogram has turned positive, but the stock still trades below the SMA50 and SMA200, and the longer-term trend structure remains damaged. A close above the SMA50 at 107.43 would strengthen the recovery case, while a break below the 20-day low at 89.21 would put the 81.81 support back in play.

Weekly (July 27, 2026 week)

Trend
Bearish. Price at 93.28 is below the SMA20 (131.17), SMA50 (184.28), and SMA200 (159.72). The weekly structure remains in a clear downtrend after the sharp decline from the 60-week high of 457.22.
Momentum
Bearish. RSI14 at 33.96 is weak and approaching oversold territory. The MACD line at -25.26 sits below the signal at -23.60, with a negative histogram of -1.66 confirming downside momentum.
Volatility
Elevated. ATR14 at 22.87 equals 24.51% of price, reflecting very wide weekly ranges during the decline.
Volume
Below average. Weekly volume of 79,380,500 is 83% of the 20-week average of 95,561,635, consistent with low participation in the recent bounce.

Assessment

The weekly chart keeps a bearish posture. Price is below every key moving average, RSI is weak, and the MACD histogram is negative. The 20-week return of -33.21% and the 60-week return of -75.09% show the scale of the drawdown, while the 5-week gain of +13.33% reads as a rebound within the downtrend. The weekly picture does not confirm a bottom yet; a sustained move back above the SMA20 near 131 would be needed to change the structure.

Key indicators

MSTR Key Technical Indicators

RSI, MACD, moving averages, ATR, and Bollinger Bands across daily and weekly timeframes.

IndicatorDailyWeekly
RSI (14)46.8233.96
MACD (12, 26, 9)-2.85 / -4.24 / 1.39-25.26 / -23.60 / -1.66
ATR (14)6.21 (6.41%)22.87 (24.51%)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)90.83 - 101.4465.53 - 196.80
SMA (20)96.13131.17
SMA (50)107.43184.28
SMA (200)153.92159.72

Price structure

MSTR Price Structure and Returns

Price performance across multiple lookback periods and 52-week position.

MetricDailyWeekly
Current Price96.8593.28
1-Period Return-1.55%+1.76%
5-Period Return-0.91%+13.33%
20-Period Return+3.15%-33.21%
60-Period Return-50.57%-75.09%
252-Period Return-74.21%+52.30%
52-Week Low81.8181.81
52-Week High414.36414.36
52-Week Position4.52%3.45%

Key levels

MSTR Support and Resistance Levels

Key price levels based on recent swing highs and lows across daily and weekly timeframes.

LevelDailyWeekly
20-Period High104.60197.00
20-Period Low89.2181.81
60-Period High193.00457.22
60-Period Low81.8181.81

Scenarios

MSTR Technical Scenarios

Conditions, invalidation triggers, and what to watch for each scenario.

Bullish

Trigger

Price holds above the 20-day low at 89.21 and breaks above the 20-day high at 104.60, then the SMA50 at 107.43, with rising volume.

Invalidation

Price closes back below the 20-day low of 89.21 and then the 52-week low of 81.81.

What to watch

Sustained closes above SMA20 (96.13); RSI holding above 55 on pullbacks; MACD histogram expanding; Bitcoin price stability above key levels.

Range-Bound

Trigger

Price continues to oscillate between the 20-day low of 89.21 and the 20-day high of 104.60.

Invalidation

A decisive break of either boundary with increasing volume.

What to watch

RSI staying between 40 and 55; volume remaining near or below average; Bitcoin trading in a range.

Bearish

Trigger

Price breaks below the 20-day low at 89.21 and then the 52-week and 60-day low at 81.81.

Invalidation

Price reclaims the SMA50 (107.43) and holds above it.

What to watch

Sustained closes below SMA20 (96.13); increasing downside volume; MACD histogram turning negative; Bitcoin breakdown.

Methodology

Methodology and Limitations

This technical analysis is calculated locally from adjusted OHLCV history. The daily series ends August 6, 2026, and the weekly series ends July 27, 2026 week. The latest completed daily bar is independently checked for date and closing-price consistency. Historical prices are adjusted for corporate actions when applicable. Indicators include Wilder RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), SMA20/50/200, Wilder ATR(14), Bollinger Bands(20,2), relative volume, multi-period returns, and price-range levels. Support and resistance are descriptive zones, not guaranteed reversal points. Historical patterns do not predict future prices, and this page is not investment advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

This technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance and historical patterns are not guarantees of future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Market data is checked for date and closing-price consistency before indicators are calculated. Data cutoffs: daily August 6, 2026, weekly July 27, 2026 week. Generated August 7, 2026.