Unum Group research snapshot
UNM AI stock analysis reads Unum Group as a workplace benefits and employee-protection insurer with healthy core-segment returns, strong capital return through buybacks and dividends, and a continued Closed Block de-risking program after reinsurance exits. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the reference quote was $86.11 from the July 31, 2026 close, with a verified market capitalization near $13.63 billion. The constructive case rests on 3.6 percent constant-currency premium growth, a 21.4 percent adjusted operating return on equity, reaffirmed 2026 after-tax adjusted operating EPS guidance of $8.60 to $8.90, a weighted average RBC ratio near 480 percent, and roughly $750 million of year-to-date capital return. The caution is that GAAP net income fell to $256.9 million in Q2 2026, disability benefit ratios rose, UK results weakened sharply, the Closed Block loss widened, and the stock gave back part of its July gains after the earnings report. This UNM AI stock analysis is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$86.11
Market cap
$13.63 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Solid core workplace benefits returns and heavy capital return, but a weaker short-term tape after Q2 2026 and elevated disability, UK, and Closed Block losses keep the margin of safety only moderate
Trend status
Price pulled back from the July high near $93 and closed below its 50-day average, while still holding above the 200-day average near $79
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Unum sells group disability, group life, voluntary benefits, dental and vision, leave management, and related workplace services where employers and employees pay for income protection and benefits administration. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from employer distribution, brand trust, claims and leave administration scale, actuarial data, product breadth across Unum and Colonial Life, switching friction inside benefits packages, and capital strength. | Medium-high |
| Management | Richard P. McKenney continues to push Closed Block risk reduction, including the $3.8 billion Fortitude Re long-term care reinsurance transaction announced in July 2026, disciplined capital return, and an 8% to 12% adjusted operating EPS growth outlook for 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 total revenue was $3.37 billion and net income was $256.9 million, or $1.61 diluted EPS, down from $335.6 million a year earlier; after-tax adjusted operating income was $346.0 million, or $2.16 per share, with premium income up 3.6 percent on a constant-currency basis. | High |
| Valuation | At $86.11, financial_rigor.py calculates about 20.3x trailing GAAP EPS of $4.24, about 1.26x June 30, 2026 book value of $68.28, a 2.35% forward dividend yield on $2.02, and roughly 10x the midpoint of 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | UNM fell from a July high near $93 toward $86.11 after Q2 earnings, closing below a 50-day average near $87.9 but holding above a 200-day average near $79, with RSI near 45 and MACD negative. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are rising short-term disability and paid leave incidence, UK earnings pressure, Closed Block losses, investment and credit marks, reserve assumption updates, employment-cycle premium sensitivity, regulation, and multiple compression if adjusted EPS growth disappoints. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive and reported data checked with financial_rigor.py. Medium for the forecast because claims experience and Closed Block items can move both earnings quality and the PE investors pay. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. UNM is a well-disclosed workplace benefits franchise with strong capital return, but Q2 2026 showed how quickly disability claims and Closed Block items can dent reported results and reset the market mood. | Medium |
UNM AI stock forecast
The UNM AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $86.11 quote and a midpoint 2026 after-tax adjusted operating EPS of about $8.75 from company guidance of $8.60 to $8.90. A three-year framework audited with financial_rigor.py produced a bullish value near $139.80, a base value near $104.20, and a bearish value near $70.00 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not a reliable prediction of Unum stock price.
$135 to $145
More likely if adjusted operating EPS compounds near 10% for three years, Unum US and Colonial Life keep strong sales and persistency, benefit ratios stabilize, the Fortitude Re long-term care deal closes cleanly, buybacks reduce share count, and investors value UNM near 12x earnings.
$100 to $110
More likely if adjusted operating EPS grows about 6% annually, premium growth stays in the mid-single digits, disability benefit ratios stay controlled, the Closed Block loss narrows, and the market values UNM near 10x earnings.
$65 to $75
More likely if short-term disability and paid leave incidence keeps rising, UK results stay weak, investment income or credit marks worsen, reserve updates cut earnings quality, employment softens premium growth, or investors value UNM closer to 8x earnings.
UNM AI technical analysis
UNM AI technical analysis starts from the August 3, 2026 data cutoff and the $86.11 reference quote from the July 31, 2026 close. The stock traded near $92 to $93 in early July, reacted to the July 28 Q2 earnings release, closed lower on July 29, bounced on July 30, and settled near $86.11 on July 31. Third-party snapshots place the 50-day average near $87.9, the 200-day average near $79.1, RSI near 45, and MACD negative. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live moving averages, RSI, options flow, and volume should be checked before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $86.11 | Reference market quote at the July 31, 2026 close, verified during the August 3, 2026 workflow. |
| Near support | $85 to $86.7 | Zone around the reported 50-day EMA near $86.70 and the July 31 intraday low near $85.3. Holding this band would give the pullback a chance to stabilize. |
| Secondary support | $79 to $81 | Area around the reported 200-day moving average near $79.1 and 200-day EMA near $80.7. This is the line that would keep the intermediate uptrend intact. |
| Major support | $68 to $72 | Deeper risk-control zone near the 52-week low area around $68.28, where the market would likely be repricing claims, UK, capital, or Closed Block disappointment. |
| Near resistance | $87.8 to $90.2 | Zone around the reported 20-day and 50-day averages near $87.8 and the 25-day Bollinger upper band near $90.2. A close back above it would improve the short-term setup. |
| Secondary resistance | $92 to $94 | Area around the July high and the reported 52-week high near $93.22. This is the breakout level that would signal renewed strength. |
| Moving averages | Below 50-day, above 200-day on latest third-party snapshots | Financhill snapshots showed a 50-day SMA near $87.88 and a 200-day SMA near $79.13, with price below the former and above the latter after the post-earnings pullback. |
| Momentum | Neutral to mildly soft short term | RSI near 45.3 with MACD near negative 0.62, and price below short-term averages after the July retreat from the low $90s. |
| Volume | About 1.4M average daily shares | The July 31 session traded about 1.39 million shares. A reconquest of the $87.8 to $90.2 zone would carry more weight if volume expands above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Moderate, with earnings-event spikes | UNM can move sharply on disability and paid leave claims, UK results, investment income, reserve updates, Closed Block items, rate moves, and capital-return news, as seen around the July 28 earnings date. |
| Invalidation | Close below $85 | A decisive close below the near-support band would weaken the pullback setup and shift attention to the 200-day zone and risk control. |
UNM AI trading strategy
The UNM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring UNM. It does not tell any individual investor to buy, sell, or hold Unum stock.
Watch for UNM to reclaim and hold the $87.8 to $90.2 zone with volume above the recent average while premium growth, benefit ratios, adjusted operating EPS progress toward the $8.60 to $8.90 outlook, book value, and capital ratios remain stable.
A failed reclaim, weak volume, or a close back below $85 should invalidate the short-term setup.
If UNM pulls back toward the $79 to $81 zone while RBC near 480 percent, holding-company liquidity, core-segment ROE, dividend coverage, and adjusted operating income remain solid, compare the price with book value, dividend yield, and normalized operating earnings power.
Do not treat a lower price as value if the decline is driven by rising disability benefit ratios, UK deterioration, Closed Block losses, credit marks, weaker sales or persistency, or a capital-return pause.
Track Unum US and Colonial Life premium and sales, disability benefit ratios, UK results, after-tax adjusted operating income, GAAP net income versus adjusted results, Closed Block loss and net premium ratio, book value and book value excluding AOCI, RBC, holding-company liquidity, buybacks, and dividend growth, plus the Fortitude Re long-term care deal closing.
Reduce confidence when price strength is not matched by premium quality, claims control, UK stability, capital strength, and clean adjusted operating EPS progress.
Investment research summary
Customers pay UNM for workplace disability, life, voluntary benefits, dental and vision coverage, leave administration, and related employee-protection services delivered mainly through employers via the Unum and Colonial Life brands.
UNM has employer distribution, product breadth, claims and leave-administration scale, actuarial data, brand recognition in employee benefits, and capital strength, but insurance moats are tested by claim trends, employment cycles, rates, and regulation.
The thesis fails if short-term disability and paid leave incidence keeps rising, employment weakens premium growth and persistency, UK results stay weak, investment or credit marks worsen, Closed Block losses persist, reserve updates cut earnings quality, or capital returns become less reliable.
Management is judged on the Fortitude Re long-term care deal closing, Closed Block risk reduction, digital and product execution, capital discipline, buyback timing, dividend durability, benefit-ratio control, and whether the reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS outlook of $8.60 to $8.90 is delivered cleanly.
Employer demand for income protection, voluntary benefits, leave management, and employee well-being services supports a long-term need, while the sector remains exposed to claims inflation, paid leave expansion, employment cycles, investment markets, and capital rules.
On adjusted operating earnings near the 2026 guidance midpoint, UNM trades near 10x, which is cheaper than the trailing GAAP PE near 20x implies, but margin of safety still depends on claims control, UK stabilization, Closed Block progress, and whether buybacks create lasting EPS support.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNM price | $86.11 | StockAnalysis market quote at July 31, 2026 close | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $13.63 billion by price times shares | financial_rigor.py market-cap check using StockAnalysis shares outstanding | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 158.31 million at June 30, 2026 | Unum Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $68.28 to $93.22 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 total revenue | $3.370 billion | Unum Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 premium income | $2.8178 billion | Unum Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income | $256.9 million, or $1.61 diluted EPS | Unum Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 after-tax adjusted operating income | $346.0 million, or $2.16 per share | Unum Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment adjusted operating income | Unum US $329.6 million, Colonial Life $131.4 million, Unum International $24.3 million, Corporate loss $44.5 million, Closed Block loss $75.4 million | Unum Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 book value per share | $68.28; $80.10 excluding AOCI | Unum Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 after-tax adjusted operating EPS outlook | $8.60 to $8.90 per share, reaffirmed in Q2 2026 | Unum Q2 2026 earnings release outlook section | August 3, 2026 |
| Capital and liquidity | Holding company liquidity about $1.5 billion; weighted average RBC about 480% at June 30, 2026 | Unum Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Capital return | About $750 million year-to-date through Q2 2026, including $600 million buybacks and $150 million dividends; $200 million buybacks in Q2 2026 | Unum Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward annual dividend | $2.02, about 2.35% yield at $86.11 | StockAnalysis dividend page and financial_rigor.py check | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue history | 2025 $13.076B, 2024 $12.887B, 2023 $12.386B, 2022 $11.984B, 2021 $12.008B; TTM $13.348B | Macrotrends revenue history | August 3, 2026 |
| Net income history | 2025 $739M, 2024 $1,779M, 2023 $1,284M, 2022 $1,407M, 2021 $981M; TTM $703M | Macrotrends net income history | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day SMA near $87.88, 200-day SMA near $79.13, RSI near 45, MACD near negative 0.62, average volume about 1.4M | Financhill and StockAnalysis quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Long-term care reinsurance | $3.8 billion Fortitude Re transaction announced July 6, 2026, expected to close in the second half of 2026 | Unum Q2 2026 earnings release and Business Wire announcement | August 3, 2026 |
This UNM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date, can be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, live market prices, and your own risk constraints.
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