TransUnion research snapshot
TRU AI stock analysis reads TransUnion as a high-quality global credit information and analytics business that is delivering a stronger 2026. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $78.62 on July 31, 2026, and market capitalization was about $15.06 billion. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. The stock beat second quarter 2026 expectations, the company raised its full-year guidance, revenue grew 15% in Q2 with 10% organic constant currency growth, and the price recovered above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages while net debt leverage eased to about 2.6x. The open question is whether sustained U.S. Financial Services and Emerging Verticals growth, plus margin recovery, can support the current valuation after a strong run. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$78.62
Market cap
$15.06 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Improving credit data franchise with recovery momentum, balanced by debt and credit-cycle risk
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the Q2 2026 beat
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TransUnion is one of three major U.S. credit bureaus and provides data, analytics, fraud, and marketing services to lenders, insurers, and businesses globally. TTM revenue was about $4.90 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from proprietary credit data, scale, switching costs, network effects, and regulatory barriers to building a new bureau. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Chris Cartwright has delivered strong 2026 momentum, a Q2 beat, raised guidance, disciplined M&A in Mexico and RealNetworks, and stepped-up share repurchases. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue was $1,309.6 million, up 15%, with adjusted EPS of $1.23. TTM net income attributable to TransUnion was $738.2 million, helped by a one-time Mexico gain. | High |
| Valuation | TRU traded near 20.8x TTM earnings and 15.3x forward earnings at the cutoff, with a forward PE near 15x on 2026 consensus. The valuation is fair for a quality name, not deep value. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price recovered above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the Q2 2026 beat, with RSI near 54. The longer 52-week trend is still down about 18.6%. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are credit-cycle sensitivity, mortgage volumes, the FICO Mortgage Direct License Program, regulation, data security, and net debt leverage near 2.6x. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High data confidence for filings, market cap math, revenue, EPS, guidance, and major risk categories. Lower confidence for future returns and credit-cycle timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. TransUnion is a good business with better 2026 momentum, but the stock already rallied and needs continued execution and reasonable valuation discipline. | Medium |
TRU AI stock forecast
The TRU AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $78.62 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires TransUnion to keep beating and raising, sustain U.S. Financial Services and Emerging Verticals growth, and keep deleveraging. The base case assumes the raised guidance is met with steady organic growth. The bearish case assumes a credit-cycle slowdown, weaker mortgage volumes, margin pressure, or a multiple reset.
$105 to $120
More likely if TransUnion keeps beating and raising through 2026, organic constant currency growth stays at 8% to 10%, adjusted EBITDA margins recover above 35%, leverage moves toward 2.4x, and the market values the stock near 19x to 21x forward EPS.
$88 to $100
More likely if TransUnion meets its raised 2026 guidance of $5.127 billion to $5.162 billion in revenue and $4.75 to $4.83 adjusted diluted EPS, organic growth stays in the high single digits, and the stock holds near the analyst average target of $96.24.
$60 to $72
More likely if credit demand weakens, mortgage volumes fall, the FICO royalty transition disappoints, margin recovery stalls, integration costs rise, or the market resets TRU toward a 14x earnings multiple.
TRU AI technical analysis
TRU AI technical analysis starts from the $78.62 close on July 31, 2026. After the Q2 earnings beat, the stock moved above the 50-day moving average near $72.96 and the 200-day moving average near $76.44. RSI is near 54 and short-term momentum turned positive, but the stock is still down about 18.6% over 52 weeks. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $78.62 | Close on July 31, 2026, used for this page at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $76 to $78 | The 200-day moving average area near $76.44 and the recent breakout zone. Treat as a planning band, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Secondary support | $72.50 to $74 | The 50-day moving average near $72.96 and the round-number zone where the April and May recovery found buyers. |
| Near resistance | $80 to $82 | The July 31 session high near $80.12 and the 5-day moving average area near $80.73. A close above this zone would extend the recovery. |
| Next resistance | $84 to $87 | A prior supply zone from the 2026 high before the pullback. A volume-confirmed break above here would strengthen the longer-term trend. |
| 50-day moving average | About $72.96 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both showed the 50-day moving average near $72.96 with price above it. |
| 200-day moving average | About $76.44 | Price closed above the 200-day moving average near $76.44, which shifts the intermediate-term trend more constructive. |
| Momentum | RSI 54.34, positive +DI over -DI | RSI is neutral, while the 14-day directional index favors positive movement. Stochastic 14-day %K was near 59. |
| Volume | About 2.09 million shares | The July 31 volume was in line with the 20-day average of about 2.4 million shares, so the move has moderate confirmation. |
| Volatility | ATR 14 near $3.54 | Average true range near 4.5% of price means position sizing should allow for normal daily swings around earnings and data releases. |
| Invalidation | Close below $76, then $72.96 | A close below the 200-day area near $76 weakens the recovery. A break below the 50-day near $72.96 would challenge the post-earnings breakout. |
TRU AI trading strategy
The TRU AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for TRU to hold above the 200-day area near $76 and break the $80 to $82 resistance zone with improving volume before treating the recovery as confirmed.
A failed breakout or daily close back below the 200-day area near $76 should reduce confidence in the setup.
If TRU pulls back toward $76 to $78 without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with the next earnings report, U.S. Financial Services growth, and margin trends.
Do not average down solely because TransUnion is a quality business. Define maximum loss and review net debt leverage first.
Track Q3 2026 results, organic constant currency growth, adjusted EBITDA margin recovery, free cash flow conversion, leverage ratio, buyback pace, and the FICO Mortgage Direct License transition.
Lower the rating if organic growth slows toward the low single digits while the stock still trades near 20x TTM earnings.
Investment research summary
TransUnion collects and analyzes consumer credit data, then sells credit reports, risk scores, fraud prevention, and marketing insights to lenders, insurers, employers, and consumers. In Q2 2026, U.S. Markets generated $993 million of revenue, up 11%, and International added $321 million, up 27% on a reported basis.
The moat is decades of proprietary credit data, deep relationships with U.S. lenders, switching costs for embedded risk models, network effects from data contributors, and high regulatory barriers to entry.
The thesis can fail if credit demand collapses, mortgage inquiry volumes fall, the FICO Mortgage Direct License Program reduces royalty economics, new regulations restrict data use, a data breach erodes trust, or leverage limits capital return.
Chris Cartwright and the leadership team delivered a Q2 2026 beat, raised full-year guidance, closed the Trans Union de Mexico and RealNetworks mobile deals, and stepped up buybacks to roughly $150 million year to date. Deleveraging toward 2.5x and margin recovery are the key watch items.
TransUnion sits at the intersection of consumer credit, data analytics, digital identity, fraud prevention, and AI-driven decisioning. Demand is durable but cyclical with lending and housing activity, and U.S. Financial Services led Q2 growth with an 18% increase.
At roughly 20.8x TTM earnings, 15.3x forward earnings, and 3.1x book value at the cutoff, the price already reflects a better 2026. The margin of safety depends on continued high single digit organic growth, adjusted EBITDA margin recovery above 35%, and free cash flow near $788 million TTM.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TRU price | $78.62 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $15.06 billion, verified as $78.62 x 191.6M shares (0.02% deviation) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and SEC 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 191.6 million as of June 30, 2026 | TransUnion Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $4.90 billion, up 12.4% | StockAnalysis and TransUnion Q2 2026 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $1,309.6 million, up 15% reported and 10% organic constant currency | TransUnion Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.58 billion | TransUnion 2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income attributable to TransUnion | $738.2 million, including a one-time $225.5 million gain on the Trans Union de Mexico acquisition | TransUnion Q2 2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income attributable to TransUnion | $143.4 million | TransUnion Q2 2026 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $3.78 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted diluted EPS | $1.23, above the $1.15 consensus | TransUnion Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $787.9 million | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $839.1 million cash, $5,585.3 million total debt, net debt $4,746.2 million, leverage ratio 2.6x | TransUnion Q2 2026 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.50 annual, $0.125 quarterly (0.64% yield) | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 raised guidance | Revenue $5,127M to $5,162M, adjusted EBITDA $1,807M to $1,827M, adjusted diluted EPS $4.75 to $4.83 | TransUnion Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Buybacks | $103.4 million in Q2 2026, roughly $150 million year to date including July, $584.8 million remaining under the plan | TransUnion Q2 2026 10-Q and earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 20.79x TTM PE, 15.25x forward PE, 3.08x TTM PS, 3.11x PB, 19.12x TTM P/FCF, 0.95 PEG from financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 50-day MA about $72.96, 200-day MA about $76.44, RSI 54.34, ATR 14-day $3.54 | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $63.37 to $97.42 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy from 22 analysts, average price target $96.24, range $77 to $115 | StockAnalysis forecast and TipRanks | August 3, 2026 |
This TRU AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026, with market data from the July 31, 2026 close, and can be wrong.
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