Toll Brothers, Inc. research snapshot
TOL AI stock analysis currently reads Toll Brothers as the leading U.S. luxury homebuilder with brand pricing power, a large land pipeline, positive order momentum, and active capital returns, offset by lower deliveries, compressed margins, and mortgage-rate sensitivity. At the July 31, 2026 close near $145.89, verified market capitalization was about $13.64 billion on roughly 93.47 million shares. FY2025 produced $10.97 billion of revenue and $1.35 billion of net income, while Q2 FY2026 showed $2.51 billion of home sales, 7% higher contracted homes, and a raised full-year delivery guidance of 10,400 to 10,700 homes. This page uses scenario ranges and source-backed checks, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$145.89
Market cap
$13.64 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Luxury homebuilder with brand strength, positive order momentum, strong balance sheet, and housing-cycle margin risk
Trend status
Mixed intermediate trend: price holds above the 200-day average near $142.85 but sits below the 50-day average near $148.22, with RSI near 44 and the 52-week high near $168 still above
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Toll Brothers designs, builds, and sells luxury homes and communities across more than 60 U.S. markets, with attached mortgage, title, and related services for affluent buyers. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from luxury brand recognition, affluent customer franchise, land and community control, local market density, purchasing scale, and product breadth rather than network effects. | Medium-high |
| Management | Karl Mistry became CEO in March 2026 with Doug Yearley as Executive Chairman. Capital allocation remains buyback-heavy, with a 4% dividend raise to $0.26 per quarter and $226 million of buybacks in H1 FY2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose slightly to $10.97 billion while net income fell to $1.35 billion. H1 FY2026 net income was $471.5 million as deliveries and GAAP margins remained softer than the prior year, even as orders improved 7% and full-year guidance was raised. | High |
| Valuation | At $145.89, verified math is about 11.0x TTM EPS near $13.22, 1.61x book value of $90.51, 11.2x free cash flow per share near $13.00, and a roughly 0.7% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | As of the July 31, 2026 close, TOL traded just above the roughly $142.85 200-day average but below the roughly $148.22 50-day average, inside a $117.50 to $168.36 52-week range with RSI near 44. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include mortgage rates, luxury demand elasticity, incentives, land and joint-venture impairments, regional concentration, construction costs and tariffs, and multiple compression if housing softens further. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive operating facts and audited valuation math. Lower for price outcomes because homebuilder earnings can reset quickly when rates, cancellations, or incentives change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. TOL is a high-quality cyclical luxury franchise, but this page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
TOL AI stock forecast
The TOL AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $145.89 price and about $13.22 of TTM diluted EPS. The audited three-year framework produced a bullish area near $200, a base area near $155, and a bearish area near $72 before dividends. The range is wide because TOL combines brand strength and cash returns with housing-cycle earnings volatility.
$195 to $215
More likely if mortgage rates ease, net orders stay positive, adjusted gross margin holds near 26%, buybacks reduce share count toward the raised FY2026 targets, and investors value TOL near a low-teens earnings multiple on growing EPS.
$145 to $165
More likely if EPS compounds only modestly from roughly $13 to $14, demand stays uneven across regions, community count grows but incentives remain elevated, and the market keeps TOL near about 11x earnings while waiting for clearer rate relief.
$65 to $80
More likely if affordability worsens, cancellations rise, land or JV impairments expand, deliveries and backlog fall further, or investors rerate luxury homebuilders toward recession-level single-digit multiples.
TOL AI technical analysis
TOL AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 31, 2026 close. FMP showed $145.89 with a $145.66 to $150.40 day range, a 50-day average near $148.22, and a 200-day average near $142.85. StockAnalysis.com confirmed the same close and added an RSI near 44, a 20-day average volume near 912,600, and a $117.50 to $168.36 52-week range. Price holding above the 200-day keeps the longer-term trend constructive, while the failed hold of the 50-day leaves near-term momentum soft.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $145.89 | July 31, 2026 closing quote snapshot from FMP, consistent with the StockAnalysis.com close print at the same level. |
| 50-day moving average | About $148.22 | Price closed below this intermediate average; a reclaim would signal renewed near-term strength. |
| 200-day moving average | About $142.85 | Longer-term trend support. A sustained break below this zone would weaken the constructive framework. |
| Near support | $142 to $145 | Cluster around the 200-day average and the current pullback low. |
| Major support | $128 to $132 | Prior consolidation zone from 2026 trading history, with the 52-week low near $118 to $122 as the deeper floor. |
| Near resistance | $150 to $152 | The 50-day average near $148 and the July day-high zone sit just overhead as short-term supply. |
| Major resistance | $165 to $168.36 | Upper 52-week supply zone. A decisive close above this band would strengthen the bullish technical case. |
| Momentum and volume | Neutral | RSI near 44 in the July 31 snapshot, with price below the 50-day and volume below its 20-day average, so momentum is soft rather than broken. |
| Invalidation | Close below about $142 on rising volume | Would put price under the 200-day average and challenge the intermediate uptrend used in the trend-following setup. |
TOL AI trading strategy
The TOL AI trading strategy is a rules framework for a cyclical luxury homebuilder, not personalized advice. Position sizing should respect housing-news volatility, earnings gaps, mortgage-rate headlines, and the fact that TOL can move several percent on order or margin surprises. Q3 FY2026 results are scheduled for August 18 to 19, 2026.
Look for TOL to reclaim and hold the 50-day average near $148 after a constructive close, with improving relative strength versus homebuilder peers and no fresh breakdown in orders or backlog. Upside confirmation improves if price clears $150 to $152 and later challenges $165 to $168.36.
Invalidation is a sustained close back below the 200-day average near $142, or a failed breakout that returns under the breakout level on higher volume. Size positions so a gap through support does not force forced selling.
In a still-intact longer-term uptrend, a pullback toward $142 to $145 or the $128 to $132 major support zone can be studied if company-specific news does not show a demand collapse. Prefer entries only when cancellations, incentives, and margin commentary remain orderly.
Use a hard stop under the support cluster being tested. Skip the setup if backlog falls sharply, impairments spike, or mortgage rates reprice higher enough to invalidate the bounce thesis.
Track weekly mortgage-rate moves, monthly existing and new-home data, TOL community count, net signed contracts, backlog value, adjusted home sales gross margin, SG&A ratio, land spend, and buyback pace. Watch the Q3 FY2026 report on August 18 to 19, 2026 for guidance revisions.
Reduce exposure before earnings if position size is large, and do not treat AI scenarios as guaranteed targets. Recheck live quotes, filings, and personal risk limits before any trade.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Toll Brothers for designed luxury homes and community living in desirable U.S. locations. The company monetizes brand trust, product customization, and affluent buyer demand rather than pure lowest-price volume housing. Related mortgage, title, and service attach add incremental economics around the core home sale.
Brand and pricing power are the clearest advantages in the luxury tier, supported by land control, local execution, and scale purchasing. Switching costs are modest for buyers choosing among builders, and network effects are weak. The moat stays durable if Toll keeps premium locations, product quality, and capital for downturn land opportunities; it narrows if incentives erase brand pricing or land quality deteriorates.
The thesis fails if high mortgage rates and soft luxury demand force deeper incentives, if land or joint-venture impairments accelerate, if deliveries and backlog keep shrinking while costs stay high, or if a management transition weakens capital discipline. A second failure path is paying a full cycle multiple for peak or mid-cycle earnings just before a housing downturn.
Karl Mistry succeeded Doug Yearley as CEO in March 2026, with Yearley moving to Executive Chairman. Early FY2026 capital allocation still prioritizes share repurchases and a modest dividend increase, alongside community growth and land investment. Key-person risk is moderated by internal succession, but investors still need evidence that order quality and margin discipline remain intact under the new leadership structure.
U.S. housing remains a long-cycle industry shaped by mortgage rates, household formation, underbuilding in prior decades, and regional migration. Luxury demand can be more resilient than entry-level demand when equity markets and high-income employment are strong, but it is not immune to rate shock. Toll sits in the premium homebuilding layer of the value chain, with suppliers, local labor, and municipal approval processes as key bottlenecks.
At about 11.0x TTM earnings and 1.61x book value, the market prices TOL as a profitable cyclical rather than a growth compounder. That multiple can look reasonable if margins stabilize and buybacks continue, but margin of safety shrinks if current EPS is above normalized housing-cycle earnings. The audited three-scenario model shows large downside if earnings and multiples both compress.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price and market cap | $145.89 and $13.64 billion | FMP quote snapshot, cross-checked with StockAnalysis.com close data | July 31, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding used in market-cap check | About 93.47 million shares | Implied from FMP market cap and price; consistent with StockAnalysis.com share count | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $10.97 billion total revenue; $10.84 billion home sales | FMP income statement and Toll Brothers FY2025 results release | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and diluted EPS | $1.35 billion and $13.49 | Toll Brothers FY2025 results and FMP cross-check | July 31, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | About $11.05 billion revenue and $1.29 billion net income | FMP TTM income statement | July 31, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and free cash flow | About $13.22 diluted EPS and $1.22 billion free cash flow, or about $13.00 per share | FMP ratios and StockAnalysis.com cash-flow TTM data used in valuation checks | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 home sales and deliveries | $2.51 billion home sales and 2,491 deliveries at about $1,009,000 average price | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results | May 19, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 net income and diluted EPS | $260.6 million and $2.72 | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results | May 19, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 orders and backlog | 2,834 net signed contracts for $2.81 billion, up 7% in homes and 8% in dollars; backlog $6.32 billion and 5,394 homes | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results | May 19, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 margins | 23.9% home sales gross margin and 26.2% adjusted home sales gross margin | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results | May 19, 2026 |
| Liquidity and leverage | $1.11 billion cash, $8.48 billion stockholders equity, 24.7% debt-to-capital, 15.4% net debt-to-capital | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results | May 19, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $90.51 at April 30, 2026 | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results | May 19, 2026 |
| Capital returns | Q2 buybacks of $175.4 million and $226 million for H1 FY2026; quarterly dividend raised 4% to $0.26 | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results and call commentary | May 19, 2026 |
| FY2026 full-year delivery guidance | 10,400 to 10,700 deliveries after the Q2 raise | Toll Brothers FY2026 second quarter results | May 19, 2026 |
| Technical averages and 52-week range | 50-day about $148.22, 200-day about $142.85, RSI about 44, 52-week range $117.50 to $168.36 | FMP quote metrics and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshot | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average price target of about $168.20 across 18 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast page | July 31, 2026 |
This TOL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 31, 2026, and can be wrong if housing demand, mortgage rates, incentives, margins, capital allocation, management execution, or market valuation changes.
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