Landstar System Inc. research snapshot
LSTR AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Landstar System Inc. as a freight cycle inflection stock trading at a premium valuation with real insurance and broker liability overhangs. The stock closed at $174.77 on July 31, 2026, down about 16% from the $228.46 52-week high after a sharp July pullback, with an after-hours print of $176.00 and a market capitalization near $5.93 billion, computed as $174.77 times 33.94 million shares outstanding and cross-validated against StockAnalysis.com. The Q2 2026 report, released July 28, 2026, showed revenue of $1.432 billion, up 18.2% year over year and well above the $1.34 billion consensus, with truck revenue per load up 17% and a 14.4% sequential gain that management called the largest in 15 years, but EPS of $1.44 missed the $1.46 consensus, dragged by a $10.5 million net unfavorable adjustment to prior year insurance claims estimates. Management raised the quarterly dividend 10% to $0.44, added a net 68 BCO trucks in the quarter, the strongest quarterly improvement since the first quarter of 2022, and flagged that the market for freight has turned in the transportation provider favor after nearly four years, with the ISM index above 50 for all six months of 2026. The AI score sits at 64 out of 100 with a rating of freight cycle inflection, meaning the improving demand picture is real but the stock still carries a premium multiple at about 45x trailing EPS and about 29.6x the FY2026 consensus EPS of $5.91, and the May 2026 U.S. Supreme Court Montgomery decision on broker liability adds uncertainty to the insurance cost line. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$174.77
Market cap
$5.93 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Freight cycle inflection with insurance costs and valuation as the key caveats
Trend status
Oversold short-term after a pullback from the 52-week high, still above the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Landstar is a technology-enabled, asset-light freight network that connects shippers with independent owner-operators (BCOs), freight agents, and more than 64,000 approved third-party carriers without owning trucks or employing drivers. Q2 2026 revenue rose 18.2% to $1.432 billion with record truck revenue per load and heavy haul revenue up 18%. | Medium-High |
| Moat | Landstar has a moderate moat built on its BCO network scale, agent relationships with 457 million-dollar agents based on 2025 results, a strong safety record with 0.62 DOT-reportable accidents per million miles, and carrier vetting depth. The Montgomery decision may widen the moat by pushing small brokers toward a safer, better-capitalized platform, while the non-asset model avoids the capital intensity of asset-heavy peers. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Frank Lonegro executed a strong quarter with revenue up 18.2%, a 10% dividend increase to $0.44, a net 68 BCO truck additions, the strongest since the first quarter of 2022, and about $120 million returned to shareholders in the first half. The open question is insurance and claims management, and new CCO Bill Clement joins effective August 1, 2026. | Medium-High |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue of $1.432 billion grew 18.2% year over year and beat the $1.34 billion consensus, variable contribution rose 17% to $199.4 million, gross profit rose 21.1% to $132.3 million, and first-half net income rose 23.3% to $88.4 million. EPS of $1.44 missed the $1.46 consensus because of a $10.5 million adverse prior year claims adjustment, and Q2 free cash flow was negative, only the third negative quarter in a decade. | High |
| Valuation | At $174.77, the stock trades at about 45.4x trailing EPS, about 29.6x the FY2026 consensus EPS of $5.91, a forward PE of 25.55x, and about 33.8x free cash flow. The pullback from the $228.46 high reduced the stretch, but the multiple is still well above the five-year average and leaves a thin margin of safety if the freight recovery disappoints. | Medium |
| Technical trend | LSTR closed at $174.77 on July 31, 2026, above the 200-day moving average near $165.31 but below the 5-day near $179.78, the 20-day near $201.32, the 50-day near $206.73, and the 100-day near $187.28, with 14-day RSI near 27.46, deeply oversold, and 14-day ADX near 26.50 with negative directional index well above positive, confirming a short-term downtrend within a longer-term uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if freight demand stalls, insurance and claims costs keep rising as the U.S. Supreme Court Montgomery decision expands broker liability, digital freight matching platforms compress brokerage margins, autonomous trucking disrupts the BCO model, or the elevated P/E reverts to historical norms without earnings growth filling the gap. | Medium-High |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, the Q2 2026 earnings release, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because truck rates, insurance costs, litigation, and multiple assumptions are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page provides a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction, and the premium valuation plus insurance risk argue for patience and position sizing discipline. | Medium |
LSTR AI stock forecast
The LSTR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $174.77 and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $5.91, which already prices in a strong freight recovery with FY2027 EPS consensus at $7.61. The three-scenario framework produced a bullish area near $300, a base area near $198, and a bearish area near $134 over three years, using adjusted EPS growth of 25%, 15%, and 8% and exit multiples of 26x, 22x, and 18x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$260 to $300
More likely if freight demand keeps improving with ISM above 50, truck revenue per load keeps rising, BCO truck additions accelerate, insurance and claims costs normalize, and the market holds a premium multiple on EPS growth toward $11.54.
$185 to $215
More likely if Landstar compounds adjusted EPS from the $5.91 consensus toward $8.99 over three years, freight rates hold recent gains, insurance costs stay elevated but manageable, and the stock trades near a 22x exit multiple, consistent with the $194.93 average analyst target.
$115 to $150
More likely if freight demand slows again, insurance and claims costs rise sharply after the Montgomery decision, digital freight matching compresses brokerage margins, or the premium multiple compresses toward 18x on slower EPS growth of 8%, consistent with the $145 Morgan Stanley target.
LSTR AI technical analysis
LSTR AI technical analysis starts from the $174.77 close on July 31, 2026. The stock pulled back sharply from the $228.46 52-week high and closed above the 200-day moving average near $165.31 but below the 5-day near $179.78, the 20-day near $201.32, the 50-day near $206.73, and the 100-day near $187.28. The 14-day RSI near 27.46 is deeply oversold, and the 14-day ADX near 26.50 with negative directional index near 42.52 versus positive near 8.97 confirms a short-term downtrend. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live moving averages and momentum should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $174.77 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; after-hours print of $176.00. Market cap math uses 33.94 million shares outstanding. |
| 52-week high | $228.46 | The upper boundary of the trading range set before the July pullback. A break above this level on volume would be technically bullish. |
| Near resistance | $179 to $187 | The 5-day moving average near $179.78 and the 100-day moving average near $187.28 mark the first overhead zone after the bounce from oversold levels. |
| Key resistance | $200 to $207 | The 20-day moving average near $201.32 and the 50-day moving average near $206.73 form a major supply zone that must be reclaimed to confirm a new up-leg. |
| Near support | $165 to $170 | The 200-day moving average near $165.31 sits in this zone. Holding above it keeps the longer-term uptrend intact. |
| Key support | $155 to $160 | A decisive close below the 200-day zone would open this lower support cluster and shift the medium-term picture bearish. |
| 52-week low | $119.32 | The lower boundary of the trading range established during the freight downturn. |
| 50-day moving average | $206.73 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $206.73, well above price, confirming the recent pullback is a correction within the longer-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $165.31 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $165.31, about 5.7% below the July 31 close. |
| Momentum | Oversold, RSI near 27 | 14-day RSI near 27.46 is deeply oversold, which historically increases the odds of a bounce, but 14-day ADX near 26.50 with negative directional index near 42.52 versus positive near 8.97 confirms the downtrend still has momentum. |
| Volume | Average liquidity, about 526K shares daily | 20-day average volume near 525,637 shares on StockAnalysis and 526,120 on Barchart. Volume is sufficient for normal position sizes, and breakout or breakdown quality should be checked on a live chart. |
| Volatility | Elevated, 14-day historical volatility near 37.4% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 37.38%, reflecting the sharp July move, so position sizing should account for larger swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $165 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $165.31 would weaken the longer-term uptrend; a close below $160 would turn the medium-term setup bearish. |
LSTR AI trading strategy
The LSTR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice, and should be paired with fresh chart data, SEC filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level. The freight cycle is inflecting and the stock is oversold, but the premium valuation and insurance risk argue for confirmation rather than front-running.
Wait for LSTR to reclaim the 5-day moving average near $179.78 and then build volume on a move toward the $187 to $207 zone, with the 200-day trend line near $165 still rising. Reclaiming the 50-day near $206.73 would confirm the correction is over.
A daily close below the 200-day moving average near $165.31 or a failed attempt at the $187 resistance should trigger a stop and review, because a broken trend line on this kind of pullback can extend downside.
With 14-day RSI near 27.46, watch for a hold of the $165 to $170 support zone near the 200-day moving average, and confirm with positive freight data such as ISM readings, truck revenue per load trends, and improving BCO truck counts before acting.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss because insurance and broker liability headlines can turn a support zone into a value trap, and Q2 free cash flow was already negative.
Track the evidence that matters most for Landstar: truck revenue per load, loads per workday, ISM Manufacturing, BCO truck count and turnover, insurance and claims cost as a share of BCO revenue, heavy haul volume, new agent signings, and buyback and dividend pace.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth depends mainly on buybacks or fuel surcharge passthrough rather than organic volume and rate gains, or if insurance and claims costs keep climbing as a share of revenue.
Investment research summary
Landstar connects shippers needing freight moved with independent owner-operators, freight agents, and third-party carriers, earning a spread on the difference between what shippers pay and what capacity providers receive, without owning trucks or employing drivers. The variable cost model scales expenses with revenue and protects margins during downturns.
The moderate moat comes from the large BCO network, deep agent relationships with 457 million-dollar agents, a strong safety record, and scale in carrier vetting with more than 64,000 approved carriers after tightening from over 100,000. The May 2026 Montgomery decision may strengthen the value proposition for small brokers who see a safer platform, while the asset-light model avoids capital intensity.
The thesis fails if freight demand stalls, insurance and claims costs keep rising as broker liability expands after the Montgomery decision, digital freight matching platforms compress brokerage margins, autonomous trucking reduces the BCO value proposition, or the elevated P/E reverts toward historical averages without earnings growth filling the gap.
CEO Frank Lonegro has continued Landstar focus on technology, BCO recruitment, and freight cycle execution. Q2 2026 delivered 18.2% revenue growth, record truck revenue per load, a net 68 BCO truck additions, the strongest since the first quarter of 2022, a 10% dividend increase, and about $120 million returned to shareholders in the first half. New CCO Bill Clement joins effective August 1, 2026.
The freight market is inflecting after nearly four years: the ISM index has been above 50 for all six months of 2026, truck capacity tightened in the quarter, truck revenue per load rose 17% year over year with the largest sequential gain in 15 years, and management says the market has turned in the transportation provider favor. Heavy haul revenue rose 18% with data center and infrastructure demand as a bright spot.
At $174.77 and about 45x trailing EPS and 29.6x FY2026 consensus EPS, the market is pricing in a strong freight recovery. The pullback from the $228.46 high improved the entry, but the multiple still leaves a thin margin of safety if the recovery disappoints, so investors should require confirmation and use position sizing discipline.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSTR price | $174.77 at the July 31, 2026 close, $176.00 after hours | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.93 billion, computed as $174.77 x 33.94 million shares outstanding, verified with 0.03% deviation | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics; financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $1.432 billion, up 18.2% year over year from $1.211 billion, beating the $1.34 billion consensus | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings release; TheFly consensus note | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS | $1.44 basic and diluted, up 20% from $1.20, missing the $1.46 consensus | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings release; TheFly consensus note | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 profitability | Gross profit of $132.3 million up 21.1%, variable contribution of $199.4 million up 17.0%, operating income of $66.2 million up 17.7% | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 truck revenue | Truck revenue of $1,334 million, up 19% year over year, with truck revenue per load up 17% and loads hauled via truck up about 2% | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| Truck revenue per load momentum | Up 17% year over year and up 14.4% sequentially from Q1 2026, the largest sequential increase in truck revenue per load in the past 15 years | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Heavy haul | About $164 million of heavy haul revenue in Q2 2026, up 18% year over year on volume up 9% and revenue per load up 8% | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| BCO truck count | Net 68 BCO truck additions in Q2 2026, the strongest quarterly improvement since Q1 2022, with BCO truck count up about 80 basis points sequentially and 12-month BCO turnover down to 28.3% from 31.4% at fiscal year end 2025 | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Insurance and claims | Insurance and claims costs of $39.4 million in Q2 2026 versus $30.4 million a year earlier, including $10.5 million of net unfavorable adjustment to prior year claims estimates, almost entirely from five specific claims, three of them truck brokerage claims | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Safety record | Accident frequency rate of 0.62 DOT-reportable accidents per million miles in H1 2026, below the 0.67 rate in H1 2025 and the last available national average | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 results | Revenue of $2.604 billion up 10.1%, operating income of $119.5 million up 24.8%, net income of $88.4 million up 23.3%, and EPS of $2.60 up 26.8% | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and short-term investments of about $348 million as of June 27, 2026, with total debt of about $66.8 million including $24.7 million current maturities and $42.1 million long-term debt, for about $281 million of net cash on a 10-Q basis; StockAnalysis reports total debt of $139.11 million and net cash of $208.60 million under its classification that includes the cash overdraft | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| H1 2026 cash flow | Cash flow from operations of $28 million and capital expenditures of $9 million in H1 2026, with Q2 2026 free cash flow negative, only the third negative free cash flow quarter in a decade | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend raised 10% to $0.44 per share, payable September 9, 2026 to holders of record August 18, 2026, up from $0.40 for the prior five quarters | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| Capital returns | About $120 million returned to shareholders in H1 2026 through dividends of about $95 million and share repurchases of about $24 million, with 150,923 shares repurchased at an aggregate cost of $22.6 million | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Buyback authorization | Authorized to purchase up to an additional 1,115,195 shares under the longstanding share purchase program | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.757 billion, down 1.58% from $4.834 billion, cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com and the 10-K | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM results | Revenue of about $5.00 billion up 4.0%, net income of $131.70 million down 21.6%, and EPS of $3.85 down 19.2% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 consensus | Revenue of $5.50 billion up 15.56% and adjusted EPS of $5.91 up 47.02% from $4.02, per the analyst forecast | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2027 consensus | Revenue of $6.15 billion up 11.89% and adjusted EPS of $7.61 up 28.80%, per the analyst forecast | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 45.37x trailing PE, 25.55x forward PE, 1.19x sales, 7.09x book value, 33.77x free cash flow, and 32.64x EV/EBITDA | StockAnalysis.com statistics; financial_rigor.py verification of 45.39x PE, 7.09x PB, 33.74x P/FCF, and 1.19x PS | August 2, 2026 |
| Forward valuation by consensus EPS | About 29.57x the FY2026 consensus EPS of $5.91 and about 22.97x the FY2027 consensus EPS of $7.61 | financial_rigor.py exact calculation | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $194.93 across 18 analysts, low $145, median $191, and high $240 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 3 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell, 2 Strong Sell out of 18 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Goldman Sachs Sell $168 to $174, UBS Hold $185 to $195, Truist Hold $205 to $185, J.P. Morgan Hold $198 to $204, and Wells Fargo Buy $240 on July 29, 2026; TD Cowen raised to $182 from $178, Stifel raised to $197 from $186, and Baird lowered to $215 from $225 on July 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TheFly analyst notes | July 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley rating | Downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight with a $145 price target in early July 2026 | TheFly via StockAnalysis.com news feed | July 6, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.42 million shares short, 4.19% of shares outstanding, and 3.06 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $119.32 to $228.46, up 31.04% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 0.88 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $179.78, 20-day SMA near $201.32, 50-day SMA near $206.73, 100-day SMA near $187.28, 200-day SMA near $165.31, 14-day RSI near 27.46, 14-day ADX near 26.50, and 14-day historical volatility near 37.38% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Montgomery decision context | The U.S. Supreme Court Montgomery decision released in mid-May 2026 relates to broker liability under the F4A preemption framework. Management said inbound interest from potential new agents accelerated after the decision, that an $18 million Midwest freight broker joined the agent network as one of the largest new signings in 15 years, and that the insurance tower renewed effective June 1, 2026 with auto liability roughly flat and broker liability up 3% | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Approved carrier network | Approved carriers reduced from over 100,000 in Q2 2022 to just over 64,000 at the end of Q2 2026, a 35% reduction driven by enhanced vetting and fraud protection | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| July 2026 freight read | Loads hauled via truck in July 2026 were about 5% above July 2025 on a dispatch basis, with revenue per load about 26% higher year over year, and truck revenue per load tracking above normal seasonality | Landstar Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| New CCO appointment | William Clement appointed Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer effective August 1, 2026, with more than 30 years of transportation and logistics leadership experience | Landstar press release via GlobeNewswire | July 23, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation model | Three-scenario model from FY2026 consensus EPS of $5.91 over three years: Bullish $300 (25% growth, 26x PE), Base $198 (15% growth, 22x PE), Bearish $134 (8% growth, 18x PE) | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 3, 2026 |
This LSTR AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, insurance and litigation developments, or macro conditions change. Landstar operates in a cyclical industry where freight demand, truck rates, fuel costs, insurance costs, and economic conditions can materially affect financial results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor.
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