LKQ Corporation research snapshot
LKQ AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff sees LKQ Corporation as the leading alternative parts recycler and distributor in North America and Europe, but the second quarter 2026 results, released July 30, 2026, missed expectations and management cut full-year 2026 guidance. The stock fell about 18% after the report and closed July 31 at $22.45 before opening August 3 at $23.23, up 3.45%, with a market capitalization near $5.88 billion. Q2 2026 revenue was $3.408 billion, down 3.0%, with adjusted diluted EPS of $0.67 versus $0.84 a year earlier, driven by a 12.6% organic decline in Europe after the ERP implementation in Germany disrupted revenue by roughly $140 million, while North America returned to positive organic growth of 0.5% for the first time in nine quarters and Specialty grew 4.5% organically. Management lowered the 2026 adjusted EPS range to $2.60 to $2.90 from $2.90 to $3.20 and the free cash flow range to $625 million to $775 million, and the company continues a board-level review of strategic alternatives that includes a possible sale of the company. At $23.23, LKQ trades at about 12.9x trailing EPS, about 8.6x the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $2.70, 0.91x book value, and near 0.43x sales, with a dividend yield near 5.2%. The LKQ AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a precise price prediction.
Current price
$23.23 at the August 3, 2026 market open, up 3.45% from the $22.45 July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$5.88 billion verified market cap
AI score
50 / 100
Rating
Low forward P/E, a ~5.2% dividend yield, and strategic review optionality offset by Q2 2026 Europe ERP disruption, a reduced 2026 outlook, margin pressure, and a bearish technical trend after a sharp post-earnings selloff
Trend status
Bearish near-term; the stock trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and printed a 52-week low near $21.17 after Q2 results missed and 2026 guidance was cut
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | LKQ is the largest end-of-life vehicle recycler and a leading distributor of aftermarket collision and mechanical parts in North America and Europe, operating across Wholesale-North America, Europe, Specialty, and Self Service segments, but Q2 2026 showed Europe organic revenue down 12.6% after the Germany ERP implementation. | Medium |
| Moat | Scale in salvage vehicle acquisition, multi-region distribution infrastructure, recycling and regulatory expertise, and relationships with insurers and repair chains create barriers, but pricing power is limited and the industry is fragmented, with a UK competitor expanding from about 80 to 230 locations. | Medium |
| Management | Justin Jude, CEO since 2023, took accountability for the Europe ERP execution and delivered over $40 million of productivity gains in the quarter, while capital returns continue, but Q2 missed and 2026 guidance was cut for the second time this year. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of about $13.69 billion and TTM net income of about $461 million reflect soft organic trends and margin pressure; first-half 2026 free cash flow was negative $36 million, and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was reduced to $2.60 to $2.90. | High |
| Valuation | At $23.23, LKQ trades at about 12.9x trailing EPS, about 8.6x the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $2.70, 0.91x book value, near 0.43x sales, and near 9.4x free cash flow, with a dividend yield near 5.2% and an EV/EBITDA of about 8.3x, close to historical lows. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Bearish near-term. The stock fell about 18% after Q2 results, printed a 52-week low near $21.17 on July 31, and trades below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with 14-day RSI near 32. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include Germany ERP recovery timing, Europe organic declines, margin compression, leverage near 2.8x EBITDA, tariff exposure on imported parts, a shareholder class action and an investigation into the Uni-Select acquisition, EV transition reducing parts demand, and the uncertainty of the strategic review. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Historical reported-data confidence is high after cross-validating the earnings release, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, StockAnalysis.com, and Barchart. Confidence in forward returns is lower because Germany ERP recovery, organic demand, tariffs, and the strategic review outcome are hard to predict. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | LKQ offers a low valuation, a meaningful dividend, and strategic review optionality, but the Europe execution risk, repeated guidance cuts, high leverage, and bearish technicals reduce the certainty of a near-term re-rating. | Medium-low |
LKQ AI stock forecast
The LKQ AI stock forecast uses the August 3, 2026 price reference of $23.23, the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of about $2.70, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $21.60, a base value near $33.40, and a bullish value near $49.00 before any dividend effect. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$42 to $52
More likely if the Germany ERP recovery returns European operations to roughly full run rate by year-end, North America keeps positive organic growth with record alternative parts usage, Specialty resumes margin expansion, free cash flow recovers and deleveraging continues, the strategic review delivers a transaction or a higher earnings multiple, and tariff exposure stays manageable.
$29 to $36
More likely if Europe recovers at a measured pace, 2026 adjusted EPS lands near the $2.60 to $2.90 guidance, organic parts and services revenue stays near the negative 3% to negative 1% range, modest EPS growth and a sustained dividend keep valuation near a low-teens earnings multiple, and the strategic review produces no major change.
$18 to $23
More likely if the Germany ERP recovery stalls and European organic declines persist, margins compress further on fuel, tariff, and mix pressure, free cash flow stays weak and leverage near 2.8x EBITDA constrains returns, the dividend is cut, the strategic review ends without a transaction, or shareholder litigation or a faster EV transition damages the parts franchise.
LKQ AI technical analysis
LKQ AI technical analysis is bearish as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. LKQ opened at $23.23 on August 3 after closing July 31 at $22.45, following a roughly 18% post-earnings selloff that printed a 52-week low near $21.17. The stock trades below the 20-day moving average near $25.07, the 50-day near $25.72 to $25.78, the 100-day near $27.41, and the 200-day near $29.44 to $29.48, with 14-day RSI near 32. These are reference levels, not certainty about the next move.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $23.23 | August 3, 2026 market open, up 3.45% from the $22.45 July 31 close, from StockAnalysis.com real-time quote. |
| Immediate support | $21.17 to $22.50 | The 52-week low of $21.17 printed on July 31, 2026 after Q2 results, with the intraday post-earnings low near $21.56. |
| Deeper support | $20 to $21 | Psychological and structural support area below the 52-week low, relevant if the $21.17 level breaks. |
| Near resistance | $24 to $25.50 | The post-earnings gap-down area and the 20-day moving average near $25.07 per Barchart, the first overhead zone for any bounce. |
| Mid resistance | $27 to $28 | The 100-day moving average near $27.41 per Barchart, above the gap zone and a prior congestion area. |
| Upper resistance | $29.44 to $31 | The 200-day moving average near $29.48 per StockAnalysis.com and $29.44 per Barchart, plus round-number supply near $30. |
| Moving averages | Price below all major averages | The 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are all above price, a bearish structure; Barchart reports 5-day near $24.12, 20-day near $25.07, 50-day near $25.72, 100-day near $27.41, and 200-day near $29.44. |
| Momentum | Near-oversold and short-term bearish | StockAnalysis.com reports 14-day RSI near 31.95 and Barchart near 33.19, approaching oversold; Barchart 14-day ADX near 17.30 with negative directional index near 41.34 above the positive near 20.00. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume near 3.0 million shares | StockAnalysis.com reports average 20-day volume near 3,037,905 and Barchart near 2,946,996; monitor heavy volume on a break below $21.17 or a reclaim of $24. |
| Volatility | Elevated after the earnings move | Barchart reports 14-day historic volatility near 71.45% and 20-day near 61.91% following the roughly 18% drop, with a 14-day average true range near $1.07. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close above $29.44 | A decisive close above the 200-day moving average near $29.44 would signal a potential trend change; a break below $21.17 would open the $20 to $21 zone. |
LKQ AI trading strategy
The LKQ AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines technical levels with the Germany ERP recovery, European organic trends, North America organic growth, segment margins, free cash flow, leverage, dividend coverage, tariff policy, shareholder litigation, and any announcement from the review of strategic alternatives.
In the current downtrend, the primary setup is to wait for stabilization near $21.17 to $23 before considering a long-side position, and to require a reclaim of the $24 to $25 zone on above-average volume before the structure improves.
Any sustained close below $21.17 with strong volume signals further downside toward $20 to $21. Short-side setups are possible if rallies fail near $25 to $26 and the downtrend resumes.
After a roughly 18% post-earnings drop with 14-day RSI near 32, a reversion toward $24 to $25 is possible if the Germany ERP recovery, North America organic growth, and free cash flow improve. Compare the lower price with forward adjusted EPS near $2.70, free cash flow, dividend yield, and book value.
Do not assume the low is in. Europe ERP execution, tariff changes, margin compression, and strategic review headlines that threaten earnings should reduce conviction in any reversion trade.
Track Germany ERP service-level recovery and European organic revenue, North America organic growth and alternative parts usage, Specialty margin trajectory, segment EBITDA margins, free cash flow conversion, net leverage near 2.8x EBITDA, the $1.5 billion buyback balance through October 25, 2026, the dividend payout ratio, tariff policy, and any update from the review of strategic alternatives.
Position sizing should reflect that LKQ is a cyclical value stock facing Europe execution risk, declining organic trends, high leverage, and structural EV transition risk, not a predictable growth business.
Investment research summary
Customers pay LKQ for lower-cost replacement vehicle parts sourced from salvage, aftermarket manufacturing, and recycling operations, backed by a multi-region distribution network that delivers parts quickly to collision and mechanical repair shops, with insurers and repair chains relying on alternative parts to control repair costs.
LKQ benefits from scale in salvage vehicle acquisition, a multi-region distribution footprint, recycling and regulatory expertise, and relationships with insurance companies and repair chains, with North America alternative parts usage at a record above 40%. The aftermarket parts industry remains fragmented and price competitive, however, with limited pricing power and an expanding UK competitor.
The thesis fails if the Germany ERP recovery stalls and European organic declines persist, margins stay compressed on fuel, tariff, and mix pressure, leverage near 2.8x EBITDA constrains returns, the dividend is cut, the strategic review ends without a transaction, shareholder litigation or the Uni-Select investigation produces a material liability, or the EV transition permanently reduces the addressable parts market.
Justin Jude, CEO since 2023, has taken accountability for the Europe ERP execution, delivered over $40 million of quarterly productivity gains, and kept capital returns intact, but Q2 missed and 2026 guidance was cut twice this year. The key question is whether management can restore German service levels, recapture European share of wallet, and stabilize margins.
The auto parts distribution industry benefits from an aging vehicle fleet, increasing miles driven, insurance-backed collision repair demand, and record alternative parts usage, with North America returning to positive organic growth for the first time in nine quarters. Headwinds include the shift toward electric vehicles, parts inflation, tariff policy, heightened competition, and continued macro pressure on consumers.
At $23.23, the market is pricing in continued Europe disruption, margin compression, and repeated guidance cuts with little recovery premium. Margin of safety would improve if Germany recovers, organic trends stabilize, free cash flow recovers, and the dividend remains covered. The current forward P/E near 8.6x, price-to-book near 0.91x, and dividend yield near 5.2% are near multi-year lows.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LKQ quote reference | $23.23 at the August 3, 2026 market open, up 3.45% from the $22.45 July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $5.88 billion reported, $5.88 billion calculated from $23.23 x 253.4 million shares outstanding per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (0.05% variance) | Pineify financial_rigor.py, StockAnalysis.com, and SEC EDGAR 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue of $3.408 billion, down 3.0% year over year; net income of $134 million; diluted EPS of $0.52; adjusted net income of $170 million; adjusted diluted EPS of $0.67 versus $0.84 | LKQ Q2 2026 earnings release, GlobeNewswire | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment organic revenue | North America organic revenue up 0.5% (first positive quarter in nine), Europe organic revenue down 12.6%, and Specialty organic revenue up 4.5%; total parts and services organic revenue down 5.1% | LKQ Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Germany ERP impact | Estimated quarterly revenue impact near $140 million and EBITDA impact near $50 million; Germany finished the week above 85% of normal revenue run rate, with a target of roughly full recovery by year-end into 2027 | LKQ Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| 2026 updated outlook | Organic parts and services revenue of negative 3.0% to negative 1.0%, diluted EPS of $1.78 to $2.08, adjusted diluted EPS of $2.60 to $2.90, operating cash flow of $825 million to $1,025 million, and free cash flow of $625 million to $775 million | LKQ Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Cash flow and balance sheet | Q2 2026 operating cash flow of $111 million and free cash flow of $60 million; first-half operating cash flow of $55 million and free cash flow of negative $36 million; total debt near $4.0 billion and net leverage near 2.8x EBITDA as of June 30, 2026 | LKQ Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Balance sheet from the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Cash of $301 million, total debt of $3,961 million net of issuance costs, long-term debt net of issuance costs of $3,388 million, total stockholders equity of $6,471 million, and 253.4 million shares outstanding as of June 30, 2026 | SEC EDGAR Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM valuation metrics | PE near 12.56, forward PE near 7.72, PS near 0.41, PB near 0.88, P/FCF near 9.09, and EV/EBITDA near 8.33 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, computed on the $22.45 prior close; at the $23.23 August 3 open the trailing PE is about 12.9x and forward PE is about 8.6x on the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $2.70 | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue, EPS, and profitability | TTM revenue near $13.69 billion, TTM net income near $461 million, TTM EPS near $1.79, gross margin near 38.3%, operating margin near 7.2%, and ROE near 7.1% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and capital returns | Annual dividend of $1.20 per share for a yield near 5.2% at $23.23; quarterly dividend of $0.30 declared July 28, 2026 with ex-dividend date August 20 and payment September 3; payout ratio near 67%; Q2 buyback of $52 million (1.9 million shares) and $1.5 billion buyback balance remaining through October 25, 2026 | LKQ Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week and historical range | 52-week range of $21.17 to $37.13, with the stock near the bottom after printing the low on July 31, 2026; down about 25.5% over 52 weeks and about 25.2% year to date | StockAnalysis.com summary statistics and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 14-day RSI near 31.95 per StockAnalysis.com and 33.19 per Barchart; 50-day moving average near $25.72 to $25.78 and 200-day near $29.44 to $29.48, both above price; average 20-day volume near 3.0 million shares | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Buy from 9 analysts with an average price target near $32.50 (about 40% above the current price), a low target near $25 and a high near $42.50; post-Q2 target cuts include Roth Capital to $35, Raymond James to $30, J.P. Morgan to $30, Baird to $30, and Barclays to $25 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
| Strategic review | The Board initiated a comprehensive review of strategic alternatives in January 2026, including a possible sale of the company, with advisors Bank of America and Goldman Sachs; the Specialty segment sale process, announced in December 2025, is being evaluated within that broader review; there is no deadline and no assurance of a transaction | LKQ Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation model | Bearish near $21.60 (0% EPS growth, 8x PE), Base near $33.40 (4% growth, 11x PE), Bullish near $49.00 (9% growth, 14x PE) over 3 years on FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $2.70 | Pineify financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 3, 2026 |
This LKQ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, the Germany ERP recovery, valuation multiples, market conditions, tariff policy, the strategic review, or source data change.
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