Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
LECO AI stock analysis currently reads Lincoln Electric Holdings as a high-quality industrial franchise that sells arc welding equipment, consumables, automated welding systems, cutting products, and Harris brazing and soldering solutions. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, LECO closed near $261.31 on July 31, 2026, with a verified market value of about $14.24 billion. Q2 2026 marked a volume inflection after nine quarters of compression: net sales rose 12.0% to a record $1.22 billion, net income rose 10.5% to $158.5 million, adjusted EPS rose 13% to $2.93, and cash flows from operations hit a record $254 million. Management raised the full-year sales growth assumption to a low double-digit rate and guided to higher adjusted operating income margin. The caution is that the premium trailing PE near 26.1x now prices the improved outlook, while International Welding volumes still fell about 5% and the Middle East conflict remains a stated headwind.
Current price
$261.31
Market cap
$14.24 billion verified market cap
AI score
78 / 100
Rating
High-quality welding and automation compounder that just reported record Q2 2026 results and raised full-year guidance, still priced at a premium valuation
Trend status
Repairing technical trend: the July 30, 2026 earnings release lifted LECO above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages for the first time in months
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Lincoln Electric sells welding equipment, consumables, automation systems, cutting tools, and Harris brazing products that industrial fabricators and OEMs need repeatedly. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust, consumable recurring revenue, distribution reach, process know-how, automation IP, and installed-base service relationships. | High |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Steven B. Hedlund and CFO Gabe Bruno are executing the RISE strategy with a record backlog, automation investment, and $120 million returned to shareholders in Q2 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net sales rose 12.0% to $1.22 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.93 and a record $254 million in operating cash flow. Six-month 2026 sales rose 11.9% and adjusted EPS reached $5.43. | High |
| Valuation | At $261.31, verified math shows about 26.13x TTM EPS of $10.00, 9.16x book value, roughly 26.3x TTM free cash flow per share near $9.95, and a 1.21% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close at $261.31 sits above the roughly $259.55 50-day area and the roughly $255.88 200-day area, with RSI near 53.5 after the post-earnings jump. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate. Demand is industrial and cyclical, International Welding volumes are still soft, Middle East conflict is a stated headwind, and valuation leaves less room for growth disappointment. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because public data and company guidance are current. Forecast confidence is medium because returns depend on volume durability, price versus inflation, automation conversion, and PE compression risk. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. Business quality and near-term momentum are strong, but the August 2026 price already assumes continued compounding rather than a deep margin of safety. | Medium |
LECO AI stock forecast
The LECO AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the August 2, 2026 research cutoff, a $261.31 stock price, $10.00 TTM EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $379 in a bull case, $290 in a base case, and $155 in a bear case before dividends. The analyst consensus price target is $297.90.
$365 to $395
More likely if the Americas volume inflection broadens, automation sales keep growing from the record backlog, adjusted margins hold near or above 18%, International Welding stabilizes, price offsets inflation, and investors keep a high-20s earnings multiple.
$280 to $300
More likely if EPS compounds near high-single digits, organic growth lands in the high single to low double digit range management guided, margins hold, and the stock trades near the mid-20s PE and the $297.90 analyst consensus.
$145 to $165
More likely if the industrial recovery stalls, International Welding and Middle East headwinds persist, inflation and tariffs compress price-cost spreads, free cash flow lags earnings, or the premium multiple compresses toward the mid-teens.
LECO AI technical analysis
LECO AI technical analysis turned constructive after the July 30, 2026 Q2 report. The July 31 close was $261.31, above the 50-day moving average near $259.55 and the 200-day moving average near $255.88, with RSI near 53.5. The 52-week range is $216.22 to $310.00. Levels below are planning zones derived from the quote and moving averages, not live chart calculations, so confirm volume and momentum in a current chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $261.31 | Reference close on July 31, 2026, after the Q2 2026 earnings release on July 30. |
| Immediate support | $255 to $260 | The 200-day area near $255.88 and the 50-day area near $259.55 form the first risk zone after the post-earnings jump. |
| Deeper support | $249 to $254 | The 20-day area near $253.59 and the July 31 low near $249 are the next shelf if the moving-average zone fails. |
| Near resistance | $264 to $270 | The July 31 intraday high near $264.08 and the round $270 level are the first targets for the repair rally. |
| 50-day moving average | About $259.55 | Price is now above this short-term trend marker; holding it would keep the tactical tape constructive. |
| 200-day moving average | About $255.88 | Price reclaimed the long-term trend marker. A sustained hold above it improves the medium-term setup. |
| Momentum | RSI near 53.5 | Momentum turned neutral-positive after the earnings jump. Follow-through above $264 matters more than one strong day. |
| Volume | Average volume near 385,000 shares | The July 31 move saw volume well above average. Breaks above $270 or below $255 should be judged against participation. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.21; 52-week range $216.22 to $310.00 | LECO is not a low-volatility utility. Earnings, industrial PMI data, steel and commodity costs, and trade news can move the stock sharply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $255 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average zone would weaken the new recovery base and refocus attention on the $249 to $254 shelf and then the $216 to $220 area. |
LECO AI trading strategy
The LECO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with Q3 2026 earnings (expected around late October 2026), organic sales mix, automation backlog conversion, price versus input costs, free cash flow conversion, and valuation discipline.
Watch for LECO to hold above the $255 to $260 moving-average band and then clear the $264 to $270 resistance zone with volume while earnings confirm low double digit sales growth, stable adjusted margins, and cash conversion near the 100% full-year target.
Treat a close back below $255 as a warning that the post-earnings breakout is fading. A break under $249 weakens the recovery base further.
If LECO pulls back toward $249 to $260 without a cut to full-year sales or margin guidance, compare the reset price with the base scenario and the free cash flow trajectory.
Do not average down only because brand and ROE look strong. Require evidence that volumes, price mix, and cash conversion remain intact through the next quarter.
Track the late-October Q3 2026 report, organic sales versus price and volume, Americas Welding and International Welding demand, Harris Products Group, adjusted operating margin, free cash flow conversion, buybacks, net debt, LIFO impact, and Middle East conflict headwinds.
Lower the rating if industrial volumes stall while the PE stays near 26x, if free cash flow lags earnings for multiple quarters, or if trade and input-cost pressure compresses margins below guidance.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Lincoln Electric because welding, cutting, and brazing processes need reliable equipment plus ongoing consumables, and factories increasingly want automated joining systems that improve quality and labor productivity.
LECO benefits from brand trust, consumable reorders, distributor relationships, process expertise, automation software and hardware, and an installed base that is expensive to switch in regulated or high-spec fabrication settings.
The thesis fails if the Americas recovery stalls, automation backlog conversion slows, International Welding and Middle East headwinds persist, tariffs or steel and energy costs crush price-cost spreads, or the market rerates LECO from a premium compounder multiple to a mid-cycle industrial multiple.
Steven Hedlund, Chairman and CEO, and CFO Gabe Bruno are executing the RISE strategy with record Q2 results, a record backlog, and $120 million returned to shareholders in the quarter. The key test is converting the volume inflection into durable margin and cash-flow gains without overpaying for growth.
LECO sits in durable manufacturing needs: infrastructure repair, energy and shipyard fabrication, automotive and heavy equipment production, and factory automation that substitutes capital for scarce skilled welders. Q2 2026 marked the first volume growth after nine quarters of compression, a possible cyclical turn that still needs confirmation.
At about 26.1x TTM EPS, 9.2x book, and roughly 26.3x TTM free cash flow per share, LECO is priced as a quality franchise recovering from a cycle. Margin of safety is thinner than business quality alone implies unless growth, margins, and cash conversion stay strong.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LECO quote reference | $261.31 close on July 31, 2026, up 4.43% on the session after the Q2 report | StockAnalysis LECO overview and Yahoo Finance LECO quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $14.24 billion market cap verified from $261.31 x 54.51 million shares with 0.03% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py, StockAnalysis, and Yahoo Finance | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 54.51 million shares outstanding, down 2.13% year over year | StockAnalysis LECO statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Net sales $1.22 billion (+12.0%), operating income $220.6 million (18.1%), net income $158.5 million, diluted EPS $2.88, adjusted EPS $2.93 | Lincoln Electric Q2 2026 earnings release, July 30, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow and shareholder returns | $253.8 million operating cash flow, $222.3 million free cash flow, 138% cash conversion, and $120 million returned to shareholders | Lincoln Electric Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Six-month 2026 results | Net sales $2.34 billion (+11.9%), net income $294.9 million, diluted EPS $5.34, adjusted EPS $5.43, free cash flow $285.3 million | Lincoln Electric Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | $242.4 million cash, $1.15 billion total debt, $1.55 billion equity, and adjusted ROIC of 23.0% | Lincoln Electric Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Full-year 2026 guidance (raised) | Net sales growth raised to a low double-digit rate, organic sales high single to low double digit, higher adjusted operating income margin with mid-20s incremental margin, and 100% cash conversion target | Lincoln Electric Q2 2026 earnings call, July 30, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | TTM EPS $10.00, trailing PE 26.13x, forward dividend about $3.16 (1.21% yield), TTM free cash flow about $542 million | StockAnalysis LECO statistics and Yahoo Finance LECO key statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average price target of $297.90, range $238 to $340, and FY2026 EPS estimate of $11.18 | StockAnalysis LECO forecast and S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 52-week range $216.22 to $310.00, 50-day MA about $259.55, 200-day MA about $255.88, RSI near 53.5 | StockAnalysis LECO statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
This LECO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, industrial demand, trade policy, rates, or market sentiment change.
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