Kirby Corporation research snapshot
KEX AI stock analysis reads Kirby Corporation as a durable, asset-heavy transportation and industrial services business rather than a growth stock. At the August 2026 data cutoff, KEX closed at $131.14 on July 31, 2026 with market capitalization near $7.02 billion. The AI analysis score is supported by the largest domestic tank-barge fleet, improving inland pricing, strong data-center power-generation demand, disciplined share repurchases, and reaffirmed 2026 guidance that now trends toward the upper end of 5% to 15% EPS growth. The KEX AI stock forecast stays scenario-based because Q2 2026 EPS of $1.67 was flat year over year, marine margins were pressured by fuel costs and shipyard activity, oil and gas revenue fell 17%, total debt rose to $1.04 billion, and freight cycles, fuel costs, coastal ATB renewal pressure, and valuation multiples can all change the outcome. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$131.14
Market cap
$7.02 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Quality marine transportation and power-generation franchise with constructive 2026 guidance, balanced by marine margin headwinds, oil and gas weakness, rising debt, no dividend, and a mid-cycle valuation
Trend status
Pulled back below the 50-day moving average to test the 200-day moving average near $127 after Q2 earnings, with RSI near 34.37 showing weak near-term momentum
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Kirby combines the largest domestic tank-barge franchise in the United States with distribution and services in power generation, commercial and industrial equipment, and oil and gas. Q2 2026 revenue rose about 8% year over year to $922.4 million. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from fleet scale, regulated waterways knowledge, customer relationships, dense operating coverage, maintenance capability, and high replacement cost for a comparable barge network, though coastal ATB term renewals fell in the low single digits in Q2 2026. | Medium-high |
| Management | David W. Grzebinski has served as CEO since 2014 and has allocated capital through fleet investment, acquisitions, debt management, and share repurchases. In Q2 2026 Kirby repurchased $59.7 million at an average of $142.38 per share and another $29.0 million in Q3 to date at $139.92. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached $3.364 billion with net earnings attributable to Kirby of $354.6 million and diluted EPS of $6.33. Q2 2026 diluted EPS of $1.67 was flat year over year but up 11% sequentially, and H1 2026 diluted EPS was $3.17. | High |
| Valuation | At $131.14, financial_rigor.py calculates about 20.14x TTM EPS, 2.06x book value using the $63.81 book value per share, 14.12x trailing free cash flow, and no regular dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The latest StockAnalysis snapshot showed a 50-day moving average near $141.13, a 200-day moving average near $127.30, RSI near 34.37, and 20-day average volume near 642,314 shares. Price was testing the long-term moving average after the Q2 report rather than at a momentum high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are freight-rate and utilization cycles, coastal ATB supply pressure, fuel-cost timing, oil and gas weakness, OEM constraints, rising debt, maintenance and growth capital spending, customer concentration, environmental rules, and valuation compression. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported facts and calculations. Medium for the forecast because marine pricing, fuel and shipyard costs, power-generation demand, capital allocation, and market multiples can all change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Kirby has a durable operating position and visible 2026 demand drivers, but the current price requires continued execution, marine margin recovery, and healthy asset returns without a major freight or industrial downturn. | Medium |
KEX AI stock forecast
The KEX AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $131.14 reference price and $6.50 TTM EPS. A three year financial_rigor.py framework using 15%, 8%, and negative 8% annual EPS growth with 22x, 18x, and 12x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $217.50, $147.40, and $60.70. These are sensitivity ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends because Kirby does not currently pay a regular dividend.
$205 to $225
More likely if inland and coastal utilization stay high, spot and term pricing keep improving, fuel-cost headwinds reverse, power-generation backlog converts into revenue, OEM constraints ease, oil and gas weakness stays contained, free cash flow funds buybacks, and investors support a premium earnings multiple.
$140 to $160
More likely if 2026 EPS grows near the upper end of the 5% to 15% guidance, marine margins recover through the second half, distribution and services stays strong, debt and buybacks stay balanced, and the market applies roughly 18x normalized earnings.
$55 to $70
More likely if freight rates fall, utilization weakens, barge supply grows faster than demand, fuel costs stay elevated, coastal renewals keep declining, power-generation orders are delayed, oil and gas remains soft, EPS contracts, and the market rerates KEX toward a low-teens multiple.
KEX AI technical analysis
KEX AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 closing reference and the latest StockAnalysis technical snapshot available before the research cutoff. The stock closed below its 50-day moving average and tested its 200-day moving average near $127, with RSI near 34.37 showing weak recent momentum after the July 29 Q2 earnings release. Because vendor timestamps differ, these are zones for a rules-based review rather than precise trade instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $131.14 | StockAnalysis real-time quote snapshot for the July 31, 2026 close, the latest completed trading session before the August 3 research date. |
| Near support | $127 to $130 | The StockAnalysis 200-day moving average was near $127.30, making this the first trend zone under review after the post-earnings pullback. |
| Secondary support | $108 to $112 | Price held around $110 in December 2025 before the 2026 run, making this the next meaningful support if the 200-day area fails. |
| Near resistance | $141 to $143 | The StockAnalysis 50-day moving average was near $141.13, now overhead after the pullback, so this is the first reclaim area to watch. |
| Major resistance | $157 to $158 | StockAnalysis reported a 52-week high near $157.69, making this the breakout and rejection area for the primary trend. |
| 50-day moving average | $141.13 StockAnalysis snapshot | Price closed below the intermediate moving average, so a reclaim or a continued decline below it matters more than a single session. |
| 200-day moving average | $127.30 StockAnalysis snapshot | Price was testing the long-term moving average, so holding or losing this area will define the intermediate trend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 34.37 | The latest snapshot showed weak momentum without an extreme oversold reading. RSI can change quickly around earnings and freight news. |
| Volume | About 642,314 shares average over 20 days | StockAnalysis reported the 20-day average volume in its latest statistics snapshot. Compare any reversal or breakdown with volume expansion. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.86, with cycle and event risk | The quoted beta was below the broad market average, but earnings, freight rates, fuel costs, industrial orders, and guidance can still create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $127, then $110 | A sustained close below the 200-day zone would weaken the primary trend. A break below $110 would signal broader trend damage. |
KEX AI trading strategy
The KEX AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for an asset-heavy industrial company. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, earnings releases, marine utilization, freight pricing, fuel-cost recovery, power-generation backlog, oil and gas activity, capital spending, debt, and explicit invalidation levels.
Watch for KEX to reclaim the $141 to $143 50-day area and hold the $127 to $130 200-day support on above-average volume, with confirmation from marine utilization, spot and term pricing, and power-generation order commentary.
A failed reclaim that closes back below the 200-day moving average zone should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If KEX pulls back toward $127 or the $108 to $112 area without deterioration in utilization, pricing, backlog, cash flow, or debt metrics, compare price weakness with the long-term fleet and service thesis.
Do not treat a lower share price as proof of value. A freight or fuel-cost downturn can reduce earnings and asset returns at the same time.
Track inland and coastal utilization, term and spot pricing, coastal ATB renewals, fuel-cost recovery, power-generation backlog, OEM availability, oil and gas demand, free cash flow, capex, debt, buybacks, and management guidance.
Reduce confidence if utilization falls, pricing weakens, fuel margins stay pressured, coastal renewals keep declining, backlog slips, capex rises without matching returns, leverage increases, or buybacks continue while operating cash flow deteriorates.
Investment research summary
Kirby moves bulk liquid products through domestic waterways and supplies engines, power-generation systems, parts, and repair services. Customers pay for reliable capacity, regulatory know-how, equipment uptime, and service coverage in markets where interruptions are costly.
The moat is built from a large tank-barge fleet, inland and coastal network density, trained crews, waterway and safety expertise, long customer relationships, maintenance capability, and the capital and time required to reproduce a comparable platform.
The thesis fails if new barge supply outruns demand, freight rates and utilization fall, coastal ATB renewal pressure spreads, fuel-cost timing keeps compressing margins, power-generation orders are delayed, oil and gas weakness spreads, debt rises, or asset values grow faster than earnings.
David W. Grzebinski has led Kirby since 2014 and has used a mix of organic fleet investment, acquisitions, debt management, and repurchases. The key management question is whether capital allocation stays disciplined when marine margins are recovering and buybacks continue.
Domestic waterways remain important for moving petrochemicals, refined products, black oils, and agricultural chemicals, while data-center and industrial demand supports power-generation services. This is a durable infrastructure trend, but not a software-like market, so returns remain tied to asset supply and end-market cycles.
At about 20.14x TTM EPS and 16.89x forward earnings, KEX is priced for continued execution rather than distress. The margin of safety improves if the price falls while utilization, pricing, backlog, free cash flow, and balance-sheet discipline remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $131.14 | Macrotrends KEX historical PE and price table | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.02 billion | StockAnalysis KEX market capitalization | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 53.50 million | StockAnalysis statistics and Kirby Q2 2026 results | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.364 billion | Kirby 2025 10-K and StockAnalysis FY2025 financials | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings attributable to Kirby | $354.6 million | Kirby 2025 results release and StockAnalysis FY2025 financials | July 29, 2026 |
| Five-year financial trend | Revenue grew from $2.247 billion in FY2021 to $3.364 billion in FY2025; net income to common moved from a $246.95 million loss to $354.57 million; FY2025 free cash flow was $405.73 million | StockAnalysis annual income statement, with FY2025 cross-checked to Kirby 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and EPS | $922.4 million revenue and $1.67 diluted EPS, up 11% sequentially and flat year over year | Kirby Q2 2026 results release | July 29, 2026 |
| H1 2026 revenue and EPS | $1,766.5 million revenue and $3.17 diluted EPS | Kirby Q2 2026 results release | July 29, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | $39.0 million cash, $1,037.3 million total debt, 23.1% debt-to-capitalization ratio, and $565.9 million liquidity available | Kirby Q2 2026 results release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment detail | Marine revenue $537.0 million with 16.4% operating margin; distribution and services revenue $385.4 million with 9.9% operating margin; power generation operating income up 27%; oil and gas revenue down 17% | Kirby Q2 2026 results release and SEC 8-K | July 29, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $6.50 to $6.51 | StockAnalysis KEX overview and Macrotrends valuation history | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day $141.13, 200-day $127.30, RSI 34.37, beta 0.86, average volume 642,314 | StockAnalysis KEX statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | EPS growth 5% to 15% trending toward the upper end, operating cash flow $575 million to $675 million, capital spending $220 million to $260 million | Kirby Q2 2026 results release | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with a $166.17 average price target across 6 analysts, about 27% above the July 31 close | StockAnalysis KEX forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 20.14x trailing PE, 16.89x forward PE, 2.06x book value, 14.12x P/FCF, and three-year scenarios bull $217.50 / base $147.40 / bear $60.70 | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis inputs | August 3, 2026 |
This KEX AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and simplified assumptions as of the stated cutoff date, and they may be wrong.
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