Graco Inc. research snapshot
GGG AI stock analysis reads Graco as a high-quality specialty industrial machinery franchise that delivered record quarterly sales and operating earnings in Q2 2026, with organic orders up 5%, a six-week booking average up 14%, and backlog up 28% from the start of the year. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, GGG closed at $79.38 on July 31 with a verified market capitalization near $12.86 billion, recovering off the 52-week low of $72.51. The page uses scenario ranges and source checks rather than a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$79.38
Market cap
$12.86 billion
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-quality fluid handling franchise with a record Q2 and improving order trends, valuation discipline still required
Trend status
Recovering off the 52-week low: price is above the 50-day moving average near $75.56 but still below the 200-day average near $82.43
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Graco designs and sells systems that move, measure, mix, control, dispense, and spray fluids and powders across contractor painting, industrial process, lubrication, and expansion end markets, and delivered record Q2 sales and earnings. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from brand trust, installed equipment, distributor relationships, application know-how, aftermarket parts and accessories, and high gross margins near 52.6%, with gross margin up 130 basis points year over year in Q2 2026. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Mark Sheahan guided for low single-digit organic growth in 2026, initiated a Q3 revenue guide of $580 million to $600 million, repurchased 4.2 million shares for about $331 million in the first half, and advanced the $447 million Valco Melton acquisition. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 sales rose 3% to $591 million with organic sales down 1%, reported EPS rose 14% to $0.87, adjusted EPS rose 17% to $0.91, and operating margin expanded to about 30% from 26% a year earlier. | High |
| Valuation | At $79.38, GGG traded near 25x trailing EPS of $3.18, about 23.5x forward earnings, 5.1x book, and roughly 20x free cash flow, with a 1.49% dividend yield and a $91.29 average analyst price target. | High |
| Technical trend | Technical snapshots improved: price at $79.38 sits above the StockAnalysis 50-day average near $75.56 and above the 52-week low of $72.51, but remains below the 200-day average near $82.43, with RSI near 58.8. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include contractor and industrial cycle swings, organic sales that were still negative in Q2, acquisition integration, Asia Pacific demand, currency, competitive pressure, and multiple compression if growth stays low single digits. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels into the third quarter and the Valco Melton close. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
GGG AI stock forecast
The GGG AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $79.38 quote and an implied forward EPS near $3.28 from consensus estimates. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $54, a base area near $86, and a bullish area near $110 before dividends, with an average analyst price target of $91.29.
$100 to $120
More likely if organic sales turn positive and compound in the high single digits, Valco Melton closes on time and adds accretive growth, semiconductor and expansion bookings stay strong, operating margins hold near 30%, and investors re-rate GGG toward the high-20x earnings zone.
$78 to $95
More likely if Graco compounds EPS around mid single digits, organic sales improve through the second half as guided, free cash flow conversion stays strong, dividends and buybacks continue, and the stock trades near the current mid-20s forward multiple.
$50 to $60
More likely if organic demand stays negative, contractor or industrial end markets weaken again, Valco Melton integration disappoints, currency turns unfavorable, or the stock is repriced closer to 16x earnings.
GGG AI technical analysis
GGG AI technical analysis is constructive but unfinished as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $79.38 on July 31, up about 7% from the 52-week low of $72.51, sits above the 50-day moving average near $75.56, and is now pressing against the 200-day average near $82.43.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $79.38 | StockAnalysis reported GGG closed at $79.38 on July 31, 2026, down 0.76% on the day on about 1.84 million shares. |
| Near support | $75.50 to $77.00 | The 50-day moving average near $75.56 and the late-July consolidation zone mark the first downside shelf after the post-earnings recovery. |
| Deeper support | $72.50 to $74.00 | The 52-week low at $72.51 and the July 2026 lows near the low $70s mark the next support shelf if the recovery fails. |
| Near resistance | $82.00 to $83.00 | StockAnalysis placed the 200-day moving average near $82.43, which is the first major overhead hurdle for a durable trend change. |
| Upper resistance | $91.00 to $96.00 | The average analyst price target is $91.29, with recent RBC and Baird targets at $96 and $94, all below the 52-week high of $95.69. |
| Momentum | RSI near 58.8 and improving | StockAnalysis listed 14-day RSI near 58.8, up from the mid-40s in July, showing momentum repaired after the earnings release. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.46 million shares | July 31 volume near 1.84 million was above the roughly 1.46 million 20-day average, giving the recovery some participation. |
| Volatility | About 17% below the 52-week high | The drawdown from $95.69 to $72.51 has partly retraced, so the stock sits in a repair zone where both trend and mean-reversion setups matter. |
| Invalidation | Close below $72.51 | A decisive close under the 52-week low would invalidate the recovery thesis and raise the risk of a deeper industrial re-rating. |
GGG AI trading strategy
The GGG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a high-quality industrial that is recovering off a low. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, the Q3 revenue guide of $580 million to $600 million, the Valco Melton close, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for GGG to reclaim and hold the $82 to $83 zone, which is the 200-day average, on volume near or above the 20-day average. Confirmation improves if Q3 results land within or above the $580 million to $600 million guide with positive organic sales.
A close below the 50-day average near $75.56 or a failed reclaim of the 200-day average should invalidate the early trend-change setup.
If GGG pulls back to the $75.50 to $77.00 zone while organic order momentum and backlog commentary stay positive, compare price action with contractor demand, industrial orders, and the Valco Melton timeline before treating the dip as a buying opportunity.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because quality industrials can still re-rate lower when organic growth and order visibility weaken.
Track organic sales by segment and region, Contractor Americas trends, semiconductor and expansion bookings, backlog, free cash flow, net cash after Valco Melton closes, dividend and buyback pace, gross and operating margins, and the Q3 and FY2026 guidance.
Reduce confidence if reported growth depends mainly on acquisitions and currency while organic volumes, margins, and cash conversion weaken.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Graco to move and apply hard-to-handle fluids and coatings more accurately, productively, and cleanly. The one-line essence is premium fluid handling equipment and aftermarket parts sold through strong channel relationships.
The moat is brand, distributor density, installed base, application engineering, and recurring parts and accessories rather than a single monopoly product. Gross margins near 52.6% and an operating margin near 30% in Q2 support that claim, but the moat can narrow if contractor demand or competitive pricing worsens.
The thesis fails if organic sales stay negative, contractor and industrial cycles weaken again, Valco Melton fails to earn attractive returns, semiconductor orders cool, or investors stop paying mid-20s earnings for low single-digit growth.
Management should be judged by organic growth recovery, pricing versus cost, acquisition returns, capital allocation between dividends, buybacks, and M&A, and whether the net-cash balance sheet is used to widen per-share value over a full cycle.
Graco sits inside long-duration needs for construction coatings, industrial process fluids, lubrication, adhesives, and automation-friendly dispensing, with semiconductor and data-center adjacent demand now a meaningful second-half driver.
At roughly 25x trailing earnings and 23.5x forward earnings after a partial recovery, GGG is less expensive than its peak multiples yet not a deep value stock. Margin of safety improves if price holds above the 50-day average while organic growth and free cash flow stabilize.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GGG price | $79.38 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis market overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.86 billion, verified as $79.38 x 161.95 million shares (0.03% variance) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 161.95 million shares, down 2.05% year over year after first-half buybacks of 4.2 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics and Graco Q2 2026 call | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 sales | $591 million, up 3%; acquisitions added 3%, currency added 1%, organic sales down 1% | Graco Q2 2026 earnings release and conference call | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | Reported net earnings $145 million, EPS $0.87, up 14%; adjusted EPS $0.91, up 17% | Graco Q2 2026 earnings release and conference call | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and earnings | Revenue $2.237 billion, up 5.83%; net earnings $521.84 million, up 7.36%; diluted EPS $3.08 | StockAnalysis financials and Graco FY2025 release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash $507.58 million and total debt $52.21 million at Q2 2026; net cash about $455 million | StockAnalysis statistics and company Q2 disclosures | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM free cash flow about $629.46 million on StockAnalysis; FY2025 free cash flow about $637.92 million | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE 24.96x, forward PE 23.53x, PB 5.10x, P/FCF 20.42x, FCF yield 4.90%, dividend yield 1.49% | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py verify-valuation | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold from 11 analysts; average price target $91.29 with a low of $84 and a high of $100 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA near $75.56, 200-day MA near $82.43, RSI near 58.8, 52-week range $72.51 to $95.69 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | financial_rigor.py output: bullish $110, base $86, bearish $54 using $3.28 forward EPS base | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 3, 2026 |
This GGG AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if Gracos fundamentals, market price, rates, currency, or investor sentiment change.
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