Ares Capital Corporation research snapshot
ARCC AI stock analysis reads Ares Capital Corporation as the largest publicly traded U.S. business development company, with about $29.35 billion of investments at fair value as of June 30, 2026 and a verified market capitalization near $13.47 billion. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the ARCC reference price was $18.76 as of the July 31, 2026 close, about 0.97x the June 30, 2026 NAV of $19.35. Q2 2026 core earnings of $0.47 per share roughly matched the $0.48 quarterly regular dividend, but GAAP net income of $171 million or $0.24 per share fell sharply from $361 million a year earlier on net unrealized losses, and NAV slipped from $19.59 at March 31, 2026. The ARCC AI stock forecast is scenario-based because credit losses, interest spreads, leverage, NAV marks, and the regular dividend can move in different directions. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$18.76 NASDAQ close as of July 31, 2026
Market cap
$13.47 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Largest U.S. public BDC with a covered regular dividend, 0.97x price-to-NAV, and material private-credit, leverage, and NAV-trend risk
Trend status
Above the 20-day and 50-day averages but below the 200-day average, near the lower half of the 52-week range after the pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ares Capital earns interest, fee, and equity income by lending to and investing in U.S. middle-market companies. Scale, direct origination through Ares, and a predominantly credit portfolio support business quality, with income quality still dependent on borrower health. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from BDC scale, Ares Management affiliation, sourcing reach, incumbent borrower relationships, a diversified portfolio, and multi-cycle underwriting history. It is not a monopoly; competitors can still bid for the same credits. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Kort Schnabel took the role in February 2025. Management should be judged by credit discipline, NAV protection, NII coverage of the dividend, leverage, fee alignment with Ares Management, and capital issuance timing. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 total investment income was about $768 million, up 3.1% year over year, with core earnings of $0.47 per share and GAAP net income of $171 million or $0.24 per share. NAV fell to $19.35 at June 30, 2026 from $19.59 at March 31, 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $18.76, verified math shows about 0.97x June 2026 NAV of $19.35, a 10.23% yield on the $1.92 regular dividend, about 9.7x TTM core EPS of $1.94, and about 14x GAAP TTM EPS of $1.34. The discount to NAV is modest, so margin of safety still depends on credit outcomes. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ARCC sits above the 20-day average near $18.79 and the 50-day average near $18.69 but below the 200-day average near $19.32. The 52-week range of $17.40 to $22.76 shows a medium-term pullback rather than a confirmed long-term uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because BDCs use leverage, mark middle-market loans, and can cut dividends if NII or credit quality deteriorates. Non-accruals of about 2.4% at cost, higher NAV losses in Q2 2026, and a core-earnings cushion just around the dividend show credit risk is real even when the payout is still declared. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported historical data and current quote math; medium for credit-cycle timing, mark-to-market path, and short-term price direction. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ARCC is a real scale BDC with a covered regular dividend and a modest NAV discount, but the Q2 2026 quarter narrowed the earnings cushion and reduced NAV, so a durable margin of safety requires stress-testing credit losses and coverage, not only annualizing the current yield. | Medium |
ARCC AI stock forecast
The ARCC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a precise price promise. A three-year auditable model using the $18.76 reference price and $1.94 trailing core-style earnings power produces about $26.9 in a bull case, $19.6 in a base case, and $12.0 in a bear case before dividends. These are sensitivity cases, not guarantees, because NAV, credit marks, spreads, leverage, and the regular dividend can change. Q2 2026 results were released on July 29, 2026, and the estimated next report is around October 27, 2026.
$25 to $28 before dividends
More likely if non-accruals stay contained, core earnings stay at or above the $1.92 regular dividend, NAV stabilizes or rises back toward $20, credit spreads stay supportive, and investors re-rate ARCC toward or above book value. The verified model used 5% earnings growth and a 12x terminal multiple near $26.9.
$18 to $21 before dividends
More likely if core earnings stay roughly flat, the $0.48 quarterly dividend remains covered, NAV holds near the high-$19 area, and the stock trades close to book value. The verified model base case was about $19.6.
$11 to $13 before dividends
More likely if middle-market defaults rise, unrealized losses become realized, NII coverage weakens below the dividend, leverage or funding costs pressure returns, or the market applies a deeper discount to NAV. The verified model bear case was about $12.0.
ARCC AI technical analysis
ARCC AI technical analysis starts from the $18.76 July 31, 2026 reference price. Barchart listed a 20-day moving average near $18.79, a 50-day moving average near $18.69, a 200-day moving average near $19.32, and 20-day average volume near 4.5 million shares. The 14-day RSI sat near 50 and historic volatility near 15%, so the setup is mixed: price holds above the near-term averages but still trades below the 200-day average and close to the lower half of the 52-week range. A sustained move above the 200-day average and NAV zone would strengthen the trend, while a break of the $17.40 52-week low would weaken the chart.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $18.76 | Reference price used for this page, the NASDAQ close of July 31, 2026, reported by Yahoo Finance and Google Finance. |
| Near support | $17.40 to $18.00 | This zone covers the 52-week low and recent trading floors. A daily close through $17.40 would challenge the mean-reversion thesis. |
| 20-day moving average | About $18.79 | Price is near or slightly below this average, so short-term trend is flat rather than decisive. |
| 50-day moving average | About $18.69 | Price is above this average, so the early August bounce is still intact on a short-term basis. |
| Near resistance | $19.30 to $19.40 | This range includes the 200-day moving average near $19.32 and the June 30, 2026 NAV of $19.35, so it is a natural fundamental and technical ceiling. |
| 200-day moving average | About $19.32 | A sustained move above this level would be the first sign that the medium-term pullback from the $22.76 52-week high is repairing. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50 | Momentum is neutral after the bounce, not stretched enough by itself to justify a directional trade without credit and NAV context. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 4.5 million shares | BDC names can move around earnings, dividend declarations, and credit headlines. Breaks of support or resistance should be checked against above-average volume. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.51; historic volatility near 15% | ARCC is less volatile than the broad market on beta, but income stocks can still reprice quickly when credit marks or dividend expectations change. |
| Invalidation | Close below $17.40 or NII coverage break | A decisive close below the 52-week low, a dividend cut signal, or core earnings falling below the regular $0.48 quarterly run-rate would reduce confidence in the base case. |
ARCC AI trading strategy
The ARCC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a large BDC income stock, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live price, the Q3 2026 report estimated for October 27, 2026, core earnings, NAV, non-accruals, leverage, dividend declarations, credit-spread data, and predefined risk limits.
Watch whether ARCC can hold above the 50-day moving average near $18.69, then reclaim the 200-day average and NAV zone near $19.30 to $19.40 with volume above the 20-day average. Fundamental confirmation should include core earnings at or above the $0.48 quarterly dividend and stable non-accruals.
Reduce confidence if price fails below $17.40, the Q3 report shows weaker coverage, or non-accruals and unrealized losses worsen.
If ARCC weakens toward the $17.40 to $18.00 support band without a new credit warning, compare the new price to NAV, TTM core earnings of about $1.94, the $1.92 regular dividend, debt-to-equity near 1.11x, and peer BDC price-to-NAV multiples before assuming support is durable.
Do not treat a higher yield as a margin of safety by itself. A lower price may be justified if credit marks, leverage, or funding costs are deteriorating.
Track core earnings per share, GAAP EPS, regular dividends, spillover income, NAV per share, non-accruals at cost and fair value, debt-to-equity, portfolio fair value, first-lien and equity mix, share count, and management fee terms with Ares.
Lower the AI score if yield rises only because NAV or core earnings are falling, or if leverage and non-accruals rise while the payout stays fixed.
Investment research summary
Ares Capital is paid to provide direct loans and other capital solutions to private middle-market companies. Customers pay interest and fees because they need flexible financing that banks and public markets do not always supply, while ARCC shareholders receive most taxable investment income through dividends under the RIC and BDC structure.
The moat comes from scale as the largest public BDC, affiliation with Ares Management, direct origination, diversified exposure across hundreds of portfolio companies, and a long record of generating net realized gains over full cycles. It weakens if competitors compress spreads or if credit losses erase the income advantage.
The thesis can fail if middle-market defaults rise, unrealized losses become permanent, leverage amplifies NAV declines, funding costs rise, the regular dividend is cut, fee drag from the external manager becomes contentious, or investors demand a much wider discount to NAV. Q2 2026 already showed lower NAV and higher non-accruals.
Kort Schnabel became CEO in February 2025 after long tenure inside the Ares credit franchise. The capital-allocation tests are whether management protects NAV, covers the dividend with core earnings rather than return of capital, issues equity only at sensible prices, and keeps leverage inside a conservative band for the cycle.
ARCC benefits from the long shift of middle-market credit away from banks and toward private lenders. The trend can slow if public credit becomes cheaper, defaults rise, regulation tightens for BDCs, or competition compresses spreads after years of private-credit growth.
At about 0.97x June 2026 NAV and a double-digit dividend yield, ARCC is not priced as a deep-value distress story. Margin of safety improves only if core earnings, non-accruals, and leverage stay healthy; it shrinks quickly if credit marks reverse the modest book-value discount.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARCC price and market capitalization | $18.76 reference price as of the July 31, 2026 close and $13.47 billion market capitalization | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance quote pages | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 718.02 million shares, cross-checked with BDC Investor at 718.00 million | Google Finance key statistics and BDC Investor shares outstanding | August 3, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $18.76 x 718.02 million shares = $13.47 billion, 0.00% variance versus reported market cap | financial_rigor.py market-cap check | August 3, 2026 |
| NAV and price-to-NAV | June 30, 2026 NAV $19.35 per share; price/NAV about 0.97x at $18.76 | Ares Capital Q2 2026 results and BDC Investor snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating results | Total investment income $768 million, up 3.1% year over year; core earnings $0.47 per share; GAAP net income $171 million or $0.24 per share; net unrealized losses drove the GAAP decline | Zacks Q2 2026 earnings coverage via Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM core EPS, GAAP EPS, and dividend | TTM core EPS about $1.94, TTM GAAP EPS about $1.34, regular annualized dividend $1.92, yield about 10.23% | BDC Investor ARCC snapshot and Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | About $3.052 billion revenue and $1.299 billion net income; TTM revenue about $3.106 billion and TTM net income about $960 million | Macrotrends ARCC revenue and net income pages | August 3, 2026 |
| Portfolio and credit quality | Investments about $29.35 billion fair value at June 30, 2026, non-accruals about 2.4% at cost and 1.4% at fair value, debt-to-equity about 1.11x | Ares Capital Q2 2026 results summary and BDC Investor | August 3, 2026 |
| Portfolio composition snapshot | About 59% senior debt, 14% subordinated debt, and 27% equity at the June 30, 2026 BDC Investor snapshot | BDC Investor ARCC profile | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | Total assets about $30.5 billion, stockholders equity about $13.9 billion, cash and equivalents about $383 million, total debt about $15.9 billion, about $6.7 billion available under credit facilities | Zacks Q2 2026 earnings coverage and Ares Capital results | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | About 9.67x PE on $1.94 TTM core EPS, 14.00x PE on $1.34 TTM GAAP EPS, 0.97x PB on $19.35 NAV, and 10.23% dividend yield on $1.92 regular dividend | financial_rigor.py valuation check | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst expectations | Average analyst target about $20.08 to $20.69 with 4 buys and 2 holds from the recent three-month window; Truist reiterated Buy at $21 on July 30, 2026 | Google Finance analyst ratings and Yahoo Finance price targets | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical inputs | 20-day MA about $18.79, 50-day MA about $18.69, 200-day MA about $19.32, 20-day average volume about 4.5 million, 52-week range $17.40 to $22.76, beta about 0.51 | Barchart technical analysis and Google Finance quote data | August 3, 2026 |
This ARCC AI stock analysis is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecasts are scenario-based, rely on available public data as of August 3, 2026, and may be wrong if earnings, credit conditions, interest rates, leverage, dividend policy, regulation, or market multiples change.
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